| ← Back to Cover Page |
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Loss Ratio Analysis |
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Trended and developed
loss ratios with credibility weighting to derive expected loss ratio |
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Developed & Trended
Loss Ratios by Accident Year |
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Accident Year |
Earned Premium |
Ultimate Losses |
Raw Loss Ratio |
Trend Factor |
Trended Losses |
On-Level Premium |
Trended LR |
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2021 |
$68,500,000 |
$39,650,000 |
57.9% |
1.118 |
$44,309,881 |
$78,245,268 |
56.6% |
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2022 |
$73,200,000 |
$44,220,000 |
60.4% |
1.090 |
$48,211,680 |
$81,178,565 |
59.4% |
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2023 |
$78,800,000 |
$48,780,000 |
61.9% |
1.064 |
$51,886,152 |
$84,843,637 |
61.2% |
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2024 |
$84,100,000 |
$54,050,000 |
64.3% |
1.038 |
$56,089,491 |
$87,912,743 |
63.8% |
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2025 |
$89,500,000 |
$63,700,000 |
71.2% |
1.012 |
$64,491,335 |
$90,832,580 |
71.0% |
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Weighted Average |
$394,100,000 |
$250,400,000 |
63.5% |
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$264,988,538 |
$423,012,793 |
62.6% |
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Credibility-Weighted
Expected Loss Ratio |
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Component |
Value |
Weight |
Contribution |
Source |
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Own Experience (Trended) |
62.6% |
75.0% |
47.0% |
Calculated from historical loss data |
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Industry Benchmark |
60.0% |
25.0% |
15.0% |
Industry loss ratio
from Assumptions |
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Expected Loss Ratio |
62.0% |
100.0% |
62.0% |
Z * Own + (1-Z) *
Industry |
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Expected Loss Ratio by
Risk Class |
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Risk Class |
Historical LR |
Relativity |
Adjusted LR |
Expected Losses |
Loss + LAE |
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Class 1 - Preferred |
47.0% |
0.75 |
42.6% |
$10,682,792 |
$11,430,588 |
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Class 2 - Standard |
54.1% |
1.00 |
56.8% |
$18,313,358 |
$19,595,293 |
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Class 3 - Moderate |
60.0% |
1.25 |
71.0% |
$12,717,610 |
$13,607,843 |
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Class 4 - Substandard |
68.1% |
1.55 |
88.1% |
$8,673,410 |
$9,280,549 |
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Class 5 - High Risk |
79.6% |
2.00 |
113.7% |
$5,087,044 |
$5,443,137 |
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Total |
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62.0% |
$55,474,214 |
$59,357,409 |
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