| ← Back to Cover |
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SCENARIO ANALYSIS |
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Bull / Base / Bear case comparison |
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Scenario |
Bear |
Base |
Bull |
Description |
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS |
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Revenue Growth (Avg 5Y) |
4.0% |
6.5% |
9.0% |
Avg projected revenue CAGR |
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EBITDA Margin (Terminal) |
18.0% |
29.9% |
25.0% |
EBITDA + D&A margin at terminal year |
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WACC |
12.50% |
11.04% |
9.50% |
Weighted avg cost of capital |
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Terminal Growth Rate |
1.5% |
2.5% |
3.5% |
Long-term sustainable growth |
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Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple |
9.0x |
12.0x |
15.0x |
Peer-implied EV/EBITDA |
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Implied EV (Gordon Growth) |
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Implied EV (Exit Multiple) |
11,568.2 |
11,568.2 |
11,568.2 |
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Blended EV |
16,478.4 |
16,478.4 |
16,478.4 |
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(-) Net Debt |
14,023.3 |
14,023.3 |
14,023.3 |
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Equity Value |
(1,150.0) |
(1,150.0) |
(1,150.0) |
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Implied Share Price |
12,873.3 |
12,873.3 |
12,873.3 |
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Upside / (Downside) vs Current |
$51.49 |
$51.49 |
$51.49 |
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22.6% |
22.6% |
22.6% |
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Note: Bear/Bull scenario
values are illustrative adjustments. For full scenario modeling, modify
Assumptions sheet inputs directly. |
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