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| MODEL ASSUMPTIONS | ||||||||||
| All blue-font values are editable inputs. Modify these to drive scenario projections. | ||||||||||
| 1. DEAL STRUCTURE | 2. TARGET FINANCIALS (LTM) | |||||||||
| Parameter | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | Financial Metric | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | |||
| Enterprise Value ($mm) | $2,800 | $2,500 | $2,200 | Revenue ($mm) | $800 | $850 | $900 | |||
| Net Debt ($mm) | $650 | $600 | $550 | Revenue Growth Rate (%) | 3.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | |||
| Equity Value ($mm) | $2,150 | $1,900 | $1,650 | EBITDA Margin (%) | 18.0% | 22.0% | 28.0% | |||
| Offer Premium (%) | 40.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | EBITDA ($mm) | $24 | $43 | $72 | |||
| Cash Consideration (%) | 60.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | D&A ($mm) | $45 | $40 | $35 | |||
| Stock Consideration (%) | 40.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | EBIT ($mm) | -$21 | $3 | $37 | |||
| Transaction Fees ($mm) | $75 | $60 | $45 | Capex (% of Revenue) | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | |||
| Financing Rate (%) | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | NWC (% of Revenue) | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | |||
| Tax Rate (%) | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |||||||
| Discount Rate / WACC (%) | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.0% | |||||||
| 3. SYNERGIES & INTEGRATION COSTS | 4. GROWTH & OPERATIONAL PROJECTIONS | |||||||||
| Parameter | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | Financial Metric | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | |||
| Revenue Synergies ($mm) | $20 | $40 | $65 | Long-Term Rev. Growth (%) | 2.0% | 4.0% | 7.0% | |||
| Cost Synergies ($mm) | $30 | $55 | $80 | Terminal EBITDA Margin (%) | 20.0% | 25.0% | 32.0% | |||
| Total Run-Rate Synergies ($mm) | $50 | $95 | $145 | Terminal Growth Rate (%) | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | |||
| Years to Full Synergy Realization | 4 | 3 | 2 | Exit Multiple (EV/EBITDA) | 7.0x | 9.0x | 12.0x | |||
| Integration Costs ($mm) | $90 | $70 | $50 | Margin Improvement /Yr (%) | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | |||
| Restructuring Charges ($mm) | $40 | $30 | $20 | Debt Paydown /Yr ($mm) | $40 | $60 | $80 | |||
| Net Synergy Benefit ($mm) | -$80 | -$5 | $75 | Dividend Yield (%) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | |||
| 5. SCENARIO PROBABILITY WEIGHTS | 6. SENSITIVITY PARAMETERS | |||||||||
| Scenario | Probability | Cumulative | Check | Variable | Low | Base | High | |||
| Worst Case | 25.0% | 25.0% | Revenue Growth | 1.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | ||||
| Base Case | 50.0% | 75.0% | EBITDA Margin | 15.0% | 22.0% | 30.0% | ||||
| Best Case | 25.0% | 100.0% | WACC | 7.0% | 10.0% | 14.0% | ||||
| Total | 100.0% | OK | Exit Multiple | 6.0x | 9.0x | 13.0x | ||||
| Synergies ($mm) | $30 | $95 | $160 | |||||||
| Note: All blue-font values are user inputs (sample/placeholder data). Yellow-highlighted cells are key assumptions that most significantly impact valuation. Formulas (black font) calculate automatically. | ||||||||||