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| BASE CASE SCENARIO — 10-Year Financial Projections | ||||||||||||
| Assumptions linked from Assumptions sheet (green font = cross-sheet reference) | ||||||||||||
| ($mm unless noted) | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | $850 | $893 | $937 | $984 | $1,033 | $1,085 | $1,139 | $1,196 | $1,256 | $1,319 | $1,385 | |
| Revenue Growth (%) | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||
| Synergy Revenue | - | $13 | $27 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | |
| Total Revenue | $850 | $906 | $964 | $1,024 | $1,073 | $1,125 | $1,179 | $1,236 | $1,296 | $1,359 | $1,425 | |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 0.22 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | |
| EBITDA | $187 | $223 | $234 | $246 | $258 | $271 | $285 | $299 | $314 | $330 | $346 | |
| Cost Synergies | - | $18 | $37 | $55 | $55 | $55 | $55 | $55 | $55 | $55 | $55 | |
| Total EBITDA | $187 | $241 | $271 | $301 | $313 | $326 | $340 | $354 | $369 | $385 | $401 | |
| (-) Depreciation & Amortization | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | |
| EBIT | $147 | $201 | $231 | $261 | $273 | $286 | $300 | $314 | $329 | $345 | $361 | |
| (-) Taxes | $37 | $50 | $58 | $65 | $68 | $72 | $75 | $79 | $82 | $86 | $90 | |
| NOPAT | $110 | $151 | $173 | $196 | $205 | $215 | $225 | $236 | $247 | $258 | $271 | |
| FREE CASH FLOW | ||||||||||||
| NOPAT | $110 | $151 | $173 | $196 | $205 | $215 | $225 | $236 | $247 | $258 | $271 | |
| (+) Depreciation & Amortization | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | |
| (-) Capital Expenditures | $43 | $45 | $48 | $51 | $54 | $56 | $59 | $62 | $65 | $68 | $71 | |
| (-) Change in Net Working Capital | - | $6 | $6 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 | |
| (-) Integration / Restructuring Costs | $40 | $30 | $30 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | ($2,500) | $110 | $129 | $179 | $186 | $193 | $200 | $208 | $216 | $224 | $233 | |
| Cumulative FCF | ($2,500) | ($2,390) | ($2,261) | ($2,082) | ($1,896) | ($1,702) | ($1,502) | ($1,294) | ($1,078) | ($854) | ($621) | |
| DCF VALUATION & RETURNS | ||||||||||||
| Discount Factor | 1 | 0.9091 | 0.8264 | 0.7513 | 0.6830 | 0.6209 | 0.5645 | 0.5132 | 0.4665 | 0.4241 | 0.3855 | |
| PV of Free Cash Flow | $100 | $107 | $134 | $127 | $120 | $113 | $107 | $101 | $95 | $90 | ||
| Terminal Value (Exit Multiple) | $3,610 | |||||||||||
| PV of Terminal Value | $1,392 | |||||||||||
| Implied Enterprise Value | $2,486 | |||||||||||
| NPV (EV - Purchase Price) | ($14) | |||||||||||
| IRR (%) | -4.5% | |||||||||||
| MOIC (x) | 0.75x | |||||||||||
| Payback Period (Years) | >10 | |||||||||||
| Exit EV/EBITDA (x) | 9.0x | |||||||||||
| Yr 1 Accretion / (Dilution) | -95.6% | |||||||||||
| Note: Green-font values reference the Assumptions sheet. IRR computed on unlevered FCF stream. Terminal value uses exit multiple method. Sample data - update Assumptions to customize. | ||||||||||||