| ← Back to Cover | ||||||||||||
| BEST CASE SCENARIO — 10-Year Financial Projections | ||||||||||||
| Optimistic assumptions: higher growth, better margins, faster synergy realization, premium exit | ||||||||||||
| ($mm unless noted) | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | |
| INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||||||||
| Revenue | $900 | $972 | $1,050 | $1,134 | $1,224 | $1,322 | $1,428 | $1,542 | $1,666 | $1,799 | $1,943 | |
| Revenue Growth (%) | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | ||
| Synergy Revenue | - | $33 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | $65 | |
| Total Revenue | $900 | $1,005 | $1,115 | $1,199 | $1,289 | $1,387 | $1,493 | $1,607 | $1,731 | $1,864 | $2,008 | |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | |
| EBITDA | $252 | $311 | $336 | $363 | $392 | $423 | $457 | $494 | $533 | $576 | $622 | |
| Cost Synergies | - | $40 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | |
| Total EBITDA | $252 | $351 | $416 | $443 | $472 | $503 | $537 | $574 | $613 | $656 | $702 | |
| (-) Depreciation & Amortization | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | |
| EBIT | $217 | $316 | $381 | $408 | $437 | $468 | $502 | $539 | $578 | $621 | $667 | |
| (-) Taxes | $54 | $79 | $95 | $102 | $109 | $117 | $126 | $135 | $145 | $155 | $167 | |
| NOPAT | $163 | $237 | $286 | $306 | $328 | $351 | $377 | $404 | $434 | $466 | $500 | |
| FREE CASH FLOW | ||||||||||||
| NOPAT | $163 | $237 | $286 | $306 | $328 | $351 | $377 | $404 | $434 | $466 | $500 | |
| (+) Depreciation & Amortization | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | |
| (-) Capital Expenditures | $36 | $40 | $45 | $48 | $52 | $55 | $60 | $64 | $69 | $75 | $80 | |
| (-) Change in Net Working Capital | - | $8 | $9 | $7 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | |
| (-) Integration / Restructuring Costs | $28 | $21 | $21 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow | ($2,200) | $202 | $246 | $286 | $304 | $323 | $343 | $365 | $389 | $415 | $443 | |
| Cumulative FCF | ($2,200) | ($1,998) | ($1,751) | ($1,465) | ($1,161) | ($838) | ($495) | ($130) | $260 | $675 | $1,118 | |
| DCF VALUATION & RETURNS | ||||||||||||
| Discount Factor | 1 | 0.9259 | 0.8573 | 0.7938 | 0.7350 | 0.6806 | 0.6302 | 0.5835 | 0.5403 | 0.5002 | 0.4632 | |
| PV of Free Cash Flow | $187 | $211 | $227 | $223 | $220 | $216 | $213 | $210 | $208 | $205 | ||
| Terminal Value (Exit Multiple) | $8,421 | |||||||||||
| PV of Terminal Value | $3,901 | |||||||||||
| Implied Enterprise Value | $6,023 | |||||||||||
| NPV (EV - Purchase Price) | $3,823 | |||||||||||
| IRR (%) | 7.3% | |||||||||||
| MOIC (x) | 1.51x | |||||||||||
| Payback Period (Years) | 7.3 | |||||||||||
| Exit EV/EBITDA (x) | 12.0x | |||||||||||
| Yr 1 Accretion / (Dilution) | -90.8% | |||||||||||
| Note: Best Case uses optimistic Assumptions (column K). Higher growth, better margins, faster synergy capture, premium exit multiple. Sample data. | ||||||||||||