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	WORST CASE SCENARIO — 10-Year Financial Projections
	Pessimistic assumptions: lower growth, compressed margins, slower synergies, discount exit
	($mm unless noted)	Year 0	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 7	Year 8	Year 9	Year 10
	INCOME STATEMENT
	Revenue	$800	$824	$849	$874	$900	$927	$955	$984	$1,013	$1,044	$1,075
	Revenue Growth (%)		3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%	3.0%
	Synergy Revenue	-	$5	$10	$15	$20	$20	$20	$20	$20	$20	$20
	Total Revenue	$800	$829	$859	$889	$920	$947	$975	$1,004	$1,033	$1,064	$1,095
	EBITDA Margin (%)	0.18	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
	EBITDA	$144	$165	$170	$175	$180	$185	$191	$197	$203	$209	$215
	Cost Synergies	-	$8	$15	$23	$30	$30	$30	$30	$30	$30	$30
	Total EBITDA	$144	$172	$185	$197	$210	$215	$221	$227	$233	$239	$245
	(-) Depreciation & Amortization	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45
	EBIT	$99	$127	$140	$152	$165	$170	$176	$182	$188	$194	$200
	(-) Taxes	$25	$32	$35	$38	$41	$43	$44	$45	$47	$48	$50
	NOPAT	$74	$95	$105	$114	$124	$128	$132	$136	$141	$145	$150
	FREE CASH FLOW
	NOPAT	$74	$95	$105	$114	$124	$128	$132	$136	$141	$145	$150
	(+) Depreciation & Amortization	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45	$45
	(-) Capital Expenditures	$48	$50	$52	$53	$55	$57	$59	$60	$62	$64	$66
	(-) Change in Net Working Capital	-	$3	$4	$4	$4	$3	$3	$3	$4	$4	$4
	(-) Integration / Restructuring Costs	$52	$39	$39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	Unlevered Free Cash Flow	($2,800)	$48	$56	$102	$110	$113	$115	$118	$120	$123	$126
	Cumulative FCF	($2,800)	($2,752)	($2,696)	($2,594)	($2,484)	($2,371)	($2,256)	($2,138)	($2,018)	($1,895)	($1,770)
	DCF VALUATION & RETURNS
	Discount Factor	1	0.8929	0.7972	0.7118	0.6355	0.5674	0.5066	0.4523	0.4039	0.3606	0.3220
	PV of Free Cash Flow		$43	$44	$73	$70	$64	$58	$53	$49	$44	$40
	Terminal Value (Exit Multiple)											$1,715
	PV of Terminal Value											$552
	Implied Enterprise Value	$1,091
	NPV (EV - Purchase Price)	($1,709)
	IRR (%)	-14.0%
	MOIC (x)	0.37x
	Payback Period (Years)	>10
	Exit EV/EBITDA (x)	7.0x
	Yr 1 Accretion / (Dilution)	-98.3%
	Note: Worst Case uses pessimistic Assumptions (columns I/C). Lower growth, compressed margins, slower synergies, discount exit. Sample data.