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| SCENARIO COMPARISON | ||||||||||
| Side-by-side KPI comparison across all three scenarios (all values dynamically linked) | ||||||||||
| VALUATION & RETURNS | OPERATING METRICS (Year 10) | |||||||||
| Metric | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | Metric | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | |||
| Implied Enterprise Value ($mm) | $1,091 | $2,486 | $6,023 | Year 10 Revenue ($mm) | $1,095 | $1,425 | $2,008 | |||
| NPV ($mm) | ($1,709) | ($14) | $3,823 | Year 10 Total EBITDA ($mm) | $245 | $401 | $702 | |||
| IRR (%) | -14.0% | -4.5% | 7.3% | Year 10 EBITDA Margin (%) | 22.4% | 28.2% | 34.9% | |||
| MOIC (x) | 0.37x | 0.75x | 1.51x | Year 10 UFCF ($mm) | $126 | $233 | $443 | |||
| Payback Period (Years) | >10 | >10 | 7.3 | Cumulative UFCF ($mm) | ($1,770) | ($621) | $1,118 | |||
| Exit EV/EBITDA (x) | 7.0x | 9.0x | 12.0x | Revenue CAGR (10-Yr) | 3.2% | 5.3% | 8.4% | |||
| Yr 1 Accretion / (Dilution) | -98.3% | -95.6% | -90.8% | |||||||
| Terminal Value ($mm) | $1,715 | $3,610 | $8,421 | |||||||
| DEAL STRUCTURE | SCENARIO RANGE ANALYSIS | |||||||||
| Metric | Worst Case | Base Case | Best Case | Metric | Range | Spread | Midpoint | |||
| Enterprise Value ($mm) | $2,800 | $2,500 | $2,200 | NPV Range ($mm) | -$1,709 to $3,823 | $5,531 | $1,057 | |||
| Equity Value ($mm) | $2,150 | $1,900 | $1,650 | IRR Range | -14.0% to 7.3% | 21.3% | -3.3% | |||
| Offer Premium (%) | 40.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | MOIC Range | 0.37x to 1.51x | 1.14x | 0.94x | |||
| Total Synergies ($mm) | $50 | $95 | $145 | EV Range ($mm) | $1,091 to $6,023 | $4,931 | $3,557 | |||
| Net Synergy Benefit ($mm) | -$80 | -$5 | $75 | |||||||
| Note: All values are dynamically linked to respective scenario sheets. Changes to Assumptions automatically flow through. Green font indicates cross-sheet references. | ||||||||||