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	PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED SCENARIO ANALYSIS
	Expected values calculated using probability weights from Assumptions sheet
	SCENARIO WEIGHTS & EXPECTED VALUES							EXPECTED VALUE SUMMARY
	Metric	Weight	Worst Case	Base Case	Best Case	Expected Value		Key Result	Value	Assessment
	Probability		25.0%	50.0%	25.0%	100.0%		Expected NPV ($mm)	$521	Value Creating
	Implied Enterprise Value ($mm)		$1,091	$2,486	$6,023	$3,021		Expected IRR (%)	-3.9%	Below WACC
	NPV ($mm)		($1,709)	($14)	$3,823	$521		Expected MOIC (x)	0.84x	Below 1x
	IRR (%)		-14.0%	-4.5%	7.3%	-3.9%		Prob. of Positive NPV	25.0%	Low Confidence
	MOIC (x)		0.37x	0.75x	1.51x	0.84x		Max Downside Loss ($mm)	($1,709)	Worst Case NPV
	Year 10 Revenue ($mm)		$1,095	$1,425	$2,008	$1,488		Max Upside Gain ($mm)	$3,823	Best Case NPV
	Year 10 EBITDA ($mm)		$245	$401	$702	$437		Risk/Reward Ratio	2.24x	Favorable
	Cumulative UFCF ($mm)		($1,770)	($621)	$1,118	($473)
	Terminal Value ($mm)		$1,715	$3,610	$8,421	$4,339
	Total Synergies ($mm)		$50	$95	$145	$96
	Yr 1 Accretion / (Dilution)		-98.3%	-95.6%	-90.8%	-95.1%
	Note: Expected values = SUM(Scenario Value x Probability). Probability weights editable in Assumptions sheet Section 5. Ensure weights sum to 100%. Risk/Reward = |Best NPV / Worst NPV|.