| ← Back to Cover | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| All key model inputs and drivers - 60 Month Projection (FY2026-FY2030) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Model Start Date | Jan-2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 1 (FY2026) | Year 2 (FY2027) | Year 3 (FY2028) | Year 4 (FY2029) | Year 5 (FY2030) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Assumption | Unit | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 | Nov-26 | Dec-26 | Jan-27 | Feb-27 | Mar-27 | Apr-27 | May-27 | Jun-27 | Jul-27 | Aug-27 | Sep-27 | Oct-27 | Nov-27 | Dec-27 | Jan-28 | Feb-28 | Mar-28 | Apr-28 | May-28 | Jun-28 | Jul-28 | Aug-28 | Sep-28 | Oct-28 | Nov-28 | Dec-28 | Jan-29 | Feb-29 | Mar-29 | Apr-29 | May-29 | Jun-29 | Jul-29 | Aug-29 | Sep-29 | Oct-29 | Nov-29 | Dec-29 | Jan-30 | Feb-30 | Mar-30 | Apr-30 | May-30 | Jun-30 | Jul-30 | Aug-30 | Sep-30 | Oct-30 | Nov-30 | Dec-30 | ||||
| MARKETPLACE / GMV ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Average Order Value (AOV) | $ | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | ||||
| Take Rate / Commission | % | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | ||||
| Transaction Fee per Order | $ | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.50 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $2.75 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | $3.00 | ||||
| Active Buyer Growth Rate (MoM) | % | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | ||||
| Initial Active Buyers (Month 1) | # | 500 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orders per Buyer per Month | # | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| Active Seller Growth Rate (MoM) | % | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | ||||
| Initial Active Sellers (Month 1) | # | 50 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monthly Buyer Churn Rate | % | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | ||||
| Monthly Seller Churn Rate | % | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| COST OF REVENUE / COGS ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Payment Processing Cost (% of GMV) | % | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | ||||
| Hosting / Infrastructure Cost per Order | $ | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.45 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.40 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.35 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | $0.30 | ||||
| Customer Support Cost per Order | $ | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.20 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $1.00 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.85 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.75 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0.65 | ||||
| Fraud / Chargeback Rate (% of GMV) | % | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | ||||
| OPERATING EXPENSE ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sales & Marketing (% of Net Revenue) | % | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 35.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | ||||
| Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) | $ | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $35 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $30 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $22 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $20 | ||||
| R&D / Product (% of Net Revenue) | % | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | ||||
| G&A (% of Net Revenue) | % | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| Office / Rent (Monthly Fixed) | $ | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $25,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | $35,000 | ||||
| Software / Tools (Monthly Fixed) | $ | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $3,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $12,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | $15,000 | ||||
| Insurance / Legal / Professional (Monthly) | $ | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $2,000 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $3,500 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $5,000 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $7,500 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | $10,000 | ||||
| HEADCOUNT & COMPENSATION ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Avg Annual Salary - Engineering | $ | $140,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Avg Annual Salary - Sales & Marketing | $ | $95,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Avg Annual Salary - G&A / Operations | $ | $85,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Avg Annual Salary - Executive Team | $ | $180,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Benefits & Tax Burden (% of Salary) | % | 25.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annual Salary Increase Rate | % | 4.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FUNDRAISING & CAPITAL ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Initial Cash Balance (Day 1) | $ | $250,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-Seed Raise Amount | $ | $1,500,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-Seed Timing (Month #) | # | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-Seed Post-Money Valuation | $ | $7,500,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Seed Raise Amount | $ | $5,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Seed Timing (Month #) | # | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Seed Post-Money Valuation | $ | $20,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series A Raise Amount | $ | $15,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series A Timing (Month #) | # | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series A Post-Money Valuation | $ | $75,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series B Raise Amount | $ | $35,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series B Timing (Month #) | # | 42 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Series B Post-Money Valuation | $ | $200,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WORKING CAPITAL & OTHER ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | Days | 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | Days | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CapEx (% of Net Revenue) | % | 3.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Depreciation Period (Months) | Months | 36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate Tax Rate | % | 21.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Minimum Cash Balance Target | $ | $100,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOTES & INSTRUCTIONS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Blue text indicates user-editable inputs. Modify these cells to run different scenarios. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - All sample data is placeholder. Replace with actual company data before use. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Monthly growth rates compound. E.g., 15% MoM buyer growth = ~535% annual growth. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Fundraising amounts and timings drive the Cash Flow and Runway calculations. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Source: All assumptions are sample inputs for model demonstration purposes. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||