| ← Back to Cover | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| REVENUE BUILDUP | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Marketplace GMV, Net Revenue, and Transaction Fee Revenue - 60 Month Projection | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year 1 (FY2026) | Year 2 (FY2027) | Year 3 (FY2028) | Year 4 (FY2029) | Year 5 (FY2030) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Metric | Unit | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 | Nov-26 | Dec-26 | Jan-27 | Feb-27 | Mar-27 | Apr-27 | May-27 | Jun-27 | Jul-27 | Aug-27 | Sep-27 | Oct-27 | Nov-27 | Dec-27 | Jan-28 | Feb-28 | Mar-28 | Apr-28 | May-28 | Jun-28 | Jul-28 | Aug-28 | Sep-28 | Oct-28 | Nov-28 | Dec-28 | Jan-29 | Feb-29 | Mar-29 | Apr-29 | May-29 | Jun-29 | Jul-29 | Aug-29 | Sep-29 | Oct-29 | Nov-29 | Dec-29 | Jan-30 | Feb-30 | Mar-30 | Apr-30 | May-30 | Jun-30 | Jul-30 | Aug-30 | Sep-30 | Oct-30 | Nov-30 | Dec-30 | ||||
| BUYER METRICS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Buyers Added | # | 500 | 75 | 80 | 86 | 92 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 120 | 129 | 138 | 147 | 105 | 109 | 114 | 118 | 123 | 128 | 133 | 138 | 144 | 150 | 156 | 162 | 118 | 120 | 123 | 125 | 128 | 130 | 133 | 135 | 138 | 141 | 144 | 146 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 96 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 101 | 101 | 102 | ||||
| Churned Buyers | # | 0 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 52 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 63 | 66 | 68 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 80 | 83 | 86 | 90 | 93 | 97 | 84 | 86 | 88 | 89 | 91 | 93 | 95 | 97 | 99 | 101 | 103 | 105 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 84 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 86 | 86 | 87 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 89 | 89 | ||||
| Active Buyers (EoM) | # | 500 | 535 | 572 | 612 | 655 | 701 | 750 | 803 | 859 | 919 | 983 | 1,051 | 1,093 | 1,136 | 1,182 | 1,229 | 1,278 | 1,329 | 1,382 | 1,437 | 1,495 | 1,555 | 1,618 | 1,683 | 1,717 | 1,751 | 1,786 | 1,822 | 1,859 | 1,896 | 1,934 | 1,972 | 2,011 | 2,051 | 2,092 | 2,133 | 2,155 | 2,177 | 2,199 | 2,221 | 2,243 | 2,265 | 2,287 | 2,310 | 2,334 | 2,358 | 2,382 | 2,406 | 2,418 | 2,430 | 2,442 | 2,455 | 2,467 | 2,480 | 2,492 | 2,505 | 2,517 | 2,530 | 2,542 | 2,555 | ||||
| Buyer Growth (MoM %) | % | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| SELLER METRICS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Sellers Added | # | 50 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||
| Churned Sellers | # | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||||
| Active Sellers (EoM) | # | 50 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 79 | 84 | 90 | 96 | 103 | 107 | 112 | 117 | 121 | 126 | 131 | 136 | 142 | 147 | 153 | 159 | 166 | 171 | 176 | 182 | 188 | 193 | 199 | 205 | 211 | 218 | 224 | 230 | 237 | 240 | 244 | 248 | 252 | 256 | 260 | 263 | 267 | 271 | 275 | 279 | 283 | 285 | 288 | 291 | 294 | 297 | 300 | 303 | 306 | 309 | 312 | 315 | 318 | ||||
| ORDER & GMV METRICS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total Monthly Orders | # | 750 | 803 | 858 | 918 | 983 | 1,052 | 1,125 | 1,205 | 1,289 | 1,379 | 1,475 | 1,577 | 1,967 | 2,045 | 2,128 | 2,212 | 2,300 | 2,392 | 2,488 | 2,587 | 2,691 | 2,799 | 2,912 | 3,029 | 3,434 | 3,502 | 3,572 | 3,644 | 3,718 | 3,792 | 3,868 | 3,944 | 4,022 | 4,102 | 4,184 | 4,266 | 4,741 | 4,789 | 4,838 | 4,886 | 4,935 | 4,983 | 5,031 | 5,082 | 5,135 | 5,188 | 5,240 | 5,293 | 5,561 | 5,589 | 5,617 | 5,647 | 5,674 | 5,704 | 5,732 | 5,762 | 5,789 | 5,819 | 5,847 | 5,877 | ||||
| Average Order Value (AOV) | $ | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $75 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $80 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $85 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $90 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | $95 | ||||
| Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) | $ | $56,250 | $60,225 | $64,350 | $68,850 | $73,725 | $78,900 | $84,375 | $90,375 | $96,675 | $103,425 | $110,625 | $118,275 | $157,360 | $163,600 | $170,240 | $176,960 | $184,000 | $191,360 | $199,040 | $206,960 | $215,280 | $223,920 | $232,960 | $242,320 | $291,890 | $297,670 | $303,620 | $309,740 | $316,030 | $322,320 | $328,780 | $335,240 | $341,870 | $348,670 | $355,640 | $362,610 | $426,690 | $431,010 | $435,420 | $439,740 | $444,150 | $448,470 | $452,790 | $457,380 | $462,150 | $466,920 | $471,600 | $476,370 | $528,295 | $530,955 | $533,615 | $536,465 | $539,030 | $541,880 | $544,540 | $547,390 | $549,955 | $552,805 | $555,465 | $558,315 | ||||
| GMV Growth (MoM %) | % | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 33.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 20.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 17.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 10.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| NET REVENUE BREAKDOWN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commission Revenue (GMV x Take Rate) | $ | $6,750 | $7,227 | $7,722 | $8,262 | $8,847 | $9,468 | $10,125 | $10,845 | $11,601 | $12,411 | $13,275 | $14,193 | $20,457 | $21,268 | $22,131 | $23,005 | $23,920 | $24,877 | $25,875 | $26,905 | $27,986 | $29,110 | $30,285 | $31,502 | $40,865 | $41,674 | $42,507 | $43,364 | $44,244 | $45,125 | $46,029 | $46,934 | $47,862 | $48,814 | $49,790 | $50,765 | $64,004 | $64,652 | $65,313 | $65,961 | $66,623 | $67,271 | $67,919 | $68,607 | $69,323 | $70,038 | $70,740 | $71,456 | $79,244 | $79,643 | $80,042 | $80,470 | $80,855 | $81,282 | $81,681 | $82,109 | $82,493 | $82,921 | $83,320 | $83,747 | ||||
| Transaction Fee Revenue (Orders x Fee) | $ | $1,875 | $2,008 | $2,145 | $2,295 | $2,458 | $2,630 | $2,813 | $3,013 | $3,223 | $3,448 | $3,688 | $3,943 | $4,918 | $5,113 | $5,320 | $5,530 | $5,750 | $5,980 | $6,220 | $6,468 | $6,728 | $6,998 | $7,280 | $7,573 | $9,444 | $9,631 | $9,823 | $10,021 | $10,225 | $10,428 | $10,637 | $10,846 | $11,061 | $11,281 | $11,506 | $11,732 | $14,223 | $14,367 | $14,514 | $14,658 | $14,805 | $14,949 | $15,093 | $15,246 | $15,405 | $15,564 | $15,720 | $15,879 | $16,683 | $16,767 | $16,851 | $16,941 | $17,022 | $17,112 | $17,196 | $17,286 | $17,367 | $17,457 | $17,541 | $17,631 | ||||
| Total Net Revenue | $ | $8,625 | $9,235 | $9,867 | $10,557 | $11,305 | $12,098 | $12,938 | $13,858 | $14,824 | $15,859 | $16,963 | $18,136 | $25,374 | $26,381 | $27,451 | $28,535 | $29,670 | $30,857 | $32,095 | $33,372 | $34,714 | $36,107 | $37,565 | $39,074 | $50,308 | $51,304 | $52,330 | $53,385 | $54,469 | $55,553 | $56,666 | $57,780 | $58,922 | $60,094 | $61,296 | $62,497 | $78,227 | $79,019 | $79,827 | $80,619 | $81,428 | $82,220 | $83,012 | $83,853 | $84,728 | $85,602 | $86,460 | $87,335 | $95,927 | $96,410 | $96,893 | $97,411 | $97,877 | $98,394 | $98,877 | $99,395 | $99,860 | $100,378 | $100,861 | $101,378 | ||||
| Net Revenue Growth (MoM %) | % | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 39.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 28.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 25.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 9.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |||||
| Effective Take Rate (Revenue/GMV) | % | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 16.1% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 18.2% | ||||
| UNIT ECONOMICS | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue per Active Buyer | $ | $17.25 | $17.26 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.26 | $17.26 | $17.25 | $17.26 | $17.26 | $17.26 | $17.26 | $17.26 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $23.22 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $29.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $36.30 | $39.67 | $39.68 | $39.68 | $39.68 | $39.67 | $39.68 | $39.68 | $39.68 | $39.67 | $39.68 | $39.68 | $39.68 | ||||
| Revenue per Order | $ | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $11.50 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $12.90 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $14.65 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $16.50 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | $17.25 | ||||
| Orders per Buyer (Monthly) | # | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| Buyer-to-Seller Ratio | x | 10.0x | 10.1x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.1x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.1x | 10.1x | 10.2x | 10.1x | 10.1x | 10.2x | 10.1x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.2x | 10.1x | 10.0x | 9.9x | 9.8x | 9.7x | 9.6x | 9.5x | 9.4x | 9.3x | 9.2x | 9.2x | 9.1x | 9.0x | 9.0x | 8.9x | 8.9x | 8.8x | 8.8x | 8.7x | 8.7x | 8.7x | 8.6x | 8.6x | 8.5x | 8.5x | 8.5x | 8.4x | 8.4x | 8.4x | 8.3x | 8.3x | 8.2x | 8.2x | 8.1x | 8.1x | 8.1x | 8.0x | ||||
| NOTES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Green text = formulas referencing Assumptions sheet. All inputs are driven from Assumptions. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - GMV = Total Orders x AOV. Net Revenue = Commission (GMV x Take Rate) + Transaction Fees (Orders x Fee/Order). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| - Source: All calculations driven by sample assumptions. Replace inputs in Assumptions sheet with actual data. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||