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	SCENARIO ANALYSIS
	SCENARIO PARAMETER ADJUSTMENTS
	Parameter	Base Case	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Disruption
	Demand Growth Multiplier	1.00x	1.15x	0.85x	0.70x
	Freight Cost Multiplier	1.00x	0.90x	1.20x	1.50x
	Production Cost Multiplier	1.00x	0.95x	1.10x	1.25x
	Duty Rate Multiplier	1.00x	0.80x	1.15x	1.50x
	FX Impact (USD strength)	1.00x	0.95x	1.08x	1.15x
	Energy Cost Multiplier	1.00x	0.92x	1.18x	1.40x
	Labor Cost Multiplier	1.00x	0.97x	1.08x	1.20x
	Capacity Availability (%)	1.00x	1.00x	0.90x	0.70x
	Lead Time Multiplier	1.00x	0.90x	1.20x	2.00x
	Insurance Rate Multiplier	1.00x	0.95x	1.15x	1.50x
	SCENARIO IMPACT ON TOTAL LANDED COST - WEIGHTED AVG LANE ($/unit)
	Cost Component	Base Case	Optimistic	Pessimistic	Disruption
	Production Cost	$52.86	$60.79	$44.93	$37.01
	Inbound Freight (Plant>DC)	$2.86	$2.58	$3.44	$4.29
	DC Handling & Storage	$17.51	$16.63	$19.26	$21.88
	Outbound Freight (DC>Cust)	$1.79	$1.61	$2.15	$2.68
	Duties & Tariffs	$0.30	$0.24	$0.35	$0.45
	Insurance & Compliance	$0.26	$0.25	$0.30	$0.40
	Inventory Carrying	$0.36	$0.35	$0.40	$0.46
	Overhead	$9.00	$8.55	$9.90	$11.25
	TOTAL LANDED COST ($/unit)	$84.95	$91.00	$80.73	$78.42
	Variance from Base ($)		$6.05	($4.23)	($6.53)
	Variance from Base (%)		7.1%	(5.0%)	(7.7%)
	5-YEAR NPV OF TOTAL NETWORK COST ($mm)
	Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
	Total Demand (units)	1,430,000	1,503,800	1,582,095	1,665,187	1,753,403
	Base TLC per unit ($)	$84.95	$87.08	$89.08	$91.04	$92.86
	Total Network Cost ($mm)	$121.5	$130.9	$140.9	$151.6	$162.8
	Discount Factor	1.000	0.909	0.826	0.751	0.683
	PV of Network Cost ($mm)	$121.5	$119.0	$116.5	$113.9	$111.2
	5-YEAR NPV ($mm)	$582.1
	Note: Scenario multipliers are user-editable. TLC impact applies multipliers to base case costs. NPV uses WACC from Assumptions as discount rate. All values in USD.