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| ASSUMPTIONS & KEY DRIVERS | |||||||||
| All inputs in blue are user-editable assumptions | |||||||||
| Historical | Projected | ||||||||
| Fiscal Year Ending December 31 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | |
| REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| Product Revenue ($mm) | 310 | 335 | 355 | 380 | 408 | 437 | 463 | 490 | |
| Services Revenue ($mm) | 130 | 142 | 155 | 170 | 187 | 206 | 225 | 245 | |
| Total Revenue ($mm) | 440 | 477 | 510 | 550 | 595 | 643 | 688 | 735 | |
| Revenue Growth (YoY %) | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | ||
| Product Revenue Mix (%) | 70.5% | 70.2% | 69.6% | 69.1% | 68.6% | 68.0% | 67.3% | 66.7% | |
| Services Revenue Mix (%) | 29.5% | 29.8% | 30.4% | 30.9% | 31.4% | 32.0% | 32.7% | 33.3% | |
| COST & MARGIN ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| COGS (% of Revenue) | 58.0% | 57.5% | 57.0% | 56.5% | 56.0% | 55.5% | 55.0% | 54.5% | |
| Gross Margin (%) | 42.0% | 42.5% | 43.0% | 43.5% | 44.0% | 44.5% | 45.0% | 45.5% | |
| SG&A (% of Revenue) | 18.0% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.5% | 16.0% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 14.8% | |
| R&D (% of Revenue) | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | |
| Other OpEx (% of Revenue) | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.2% | 32.4% | 32.7% | 32.9% | 32.8% | |
| D&A AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| D&A (% of Revenue) | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | |
| Capex (% of Revenue) | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | |
| WORKING CAPITAL ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) | 48 | 47 | 46 | 45 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 42 | |
| Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) | 55 | 53 | 52 | 50 | 49 | 48 | 47 | 46 | |
| Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 46 | |
| Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) | 63 | 59 | 56 | 52 | 49 | 46 | 44 | 42 | |
| DEBT & TAX ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| Interest Rate on Term Loan | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | |
| Interest Rate on Revolver | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | |
| Mandatory Debt Repayment ($mm) | 15 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 30 | |
| Effective Tax Rate (%) | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | |
| Interest Income Rate (on Cash) | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| BALANCE SHEET ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| Minimum Cash Balance ($mm) | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
| Dividends ($mm) | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | |
| Share Buybacks ($mm) | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 25 | 28 | |
| Other Non-Current Assets ($mm) | 45 | 47 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 56 | 58 | 60 | |
| Goodwill & Intangibles ($mm) | 120 | 118 | 115 | 112 | 109 | 106 | 103 | 100 | |
| Other Current Liabilities ($mm) | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities ($mm) | 35 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 29 | 28 | |
| Accrued Expenses ($mm) | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | |
| Prepaid & Other Current Assets ($mm) | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | |
| Notes: | |||||||||
| - All data is sample/placeholder for a hypothetical ~$500M revenue industrial company | |||||||||
| - Blue text values are editable inputs; black text values are calculated formulas | |||||||||
| - Projected margins reflect gradual operational improvement assumptions | |||||||||