| ← Back to Cover |
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SPOT PRICE ANALYSIS |
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Seasonality, Distribution
Analysis & Statistical Metrics |
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MONTHLY SEASONALITY
ANALYSIS (5-Year Average) |
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Month |
Avg Base |
Avg Peak |
Avg Off-Peak |
Avg Spread |
Seasonal Index |
Std Dev (Base) |
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January |
89.75 |
103.21 |
68.21 |
35.00 |
1.35x |
26.93 |
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February |
81.87 |
96.61 |
60.58 |
36.02 |
1.24x |
24.56 |
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March |
72.30 |
80.97 |
52.05 |
28.92 |
1.09x |
21.69 |
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April |
60.36 |
69.41 |
47.08 |
22.33 |
0.91x |
18.11 |
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May |
51.86 |
61.19 |
39.41 |
21.78 |
0.78x |
15.56 |
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June |
48.66 |
54.50 |
36.01 |
18.49 |
0.73x |
14.60 |
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July |
45.53 |
52.36 |
32.78 |
19.58 |
0.69x |
13.66 |
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August |
48.95 |
57.76 |
38.18 |
19.58 |
0.74x |
14.69 |
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September |
55.10 |
61.72 |
41.88 |
19.84 |
0.83x |
16.53 |
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October |
67.48 |
77.60 |
49.93 |
27.67 |
1.02x |
20.24 |
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November |
79.42 |
93.72 |
57.18 |
36.53 |
1.20x |
23.83 |
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December |
93.99 |
105.27 |
73.32 |
31.96 |
1.42x |
28.20 |
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Annual Average |
66.27 |
76.19 |
49.72 |
26.48 |
1.00x |
19.88 |
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YEAR-OVER-YEAR ANALYSIS |
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Year |
Avg Base |
Avg Peak |
Avg Off-Peak |
YoY Change % |
Min (Base) |
Max (Base) |
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2021 |
41.28 |
47.45 |
30.97 |
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26.32 |
60.32 |
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2022 |
131.03 |
150.66 |
98.33 |
217.4% |
93.18 |
186.56 |
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2023 |
74.39 |
85.52 |
55.78 |
-43.2% |
50.40 |
100.98 |
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2024 |
45.93 |
52.81 |
34.46 |
-38.3% |
29.57 |
67.63 |
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2025 |
38.74 |
44.54 |
29.06 |
-15.6% |
26.79 |
56.20 |
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PRICE DISTRIBUTION
ANALYSIS (Base Load) |
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PERCENTILE ANALYSIS |
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Price Bin (EUR/MWh) |
Frequency |
Cumulative % |
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Percentile |
Base Price |
Peak Price |
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26 - 42 |
20 |
33.9% |
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1st |
26.60 |
31.06 |
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42 - 58 |
17 |
62.7% |
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5th |
28.77 |
33.16 |
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58 - 74 |
5 |
71.2% |
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10th |
30.87 |
34.67 |
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74 - 90 |
3 |
76.3% |
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25th (Q1) |
38.20 |
43.80 |
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90 - 106 |
8 |
89.8% |
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50th (Median) |
51.90 |
60.16 |
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106 - 122 |
1 |
91.5% |
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75th (Q3) |
87.69 |
101.66 |
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122 - 138 |
2 |
94.9% |
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90th |
120.16 |
138.17 |
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138 - 155 |
0 |
94.9% |
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95th |
156.44 |
184.59 |
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155 - 171 |
2 |
98.3% |
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99th |
185.99 |
210.60 |
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171 - 187 |
1 |
100.0% |
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IQR (Base) |
49.49 |
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ROLLING STATISTICS
(12-Month Window, Base Load) |
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Period End |
12M Avg |
12M StdDev |
12M Min |
12M Max |
12M CoV |
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2021-12 |
41.28 |
10.81 |
26.32 |
60.32 |
26.2% |
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2022-01 |
52.43 |
43.45 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
82.9% |
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2022-02 |
61.21 |
52.79 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
86.2% |
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2022-03 |
68.98 |
56.89 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
82.5% |
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2022-04 |
75.68 |
57.74 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
76.3% |
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2022-05 |
81.44 |
56.56 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
69.4% |
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2022-06 |
86.95 |
54.46 |
26.32 |
186.56 |
62.6% |
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2022-07 |
92.53 |
51.01 |
28.80 |
186.56 |
55.1% |
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2022-08 |
98.61 |
46.90 |
34.30 |
186.56 |
47.6% |
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2022-09 |
104.52 |
42.31 |
42.00 |
186.56 |
40.5% |
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2022-10 |
111.77 |
37.84 |
51.00 |
186.56 |
33.9% |
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2022-11 |
120.59 |
34.57 |
60.32 |
186.56 |
28.7% |
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2022-12 |
131.03 |
33.62 |
93.18 |
186.56 |
25.7% |
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2023-01 |
123.90 |
29.61 |
93.18 |
185.60 |
23.9% |
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2023-02 |
118.97 |
28.61 |
93.18 |
185.60 |
24.0% |
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2023-03 |
114.61 |
29.38 |
85.86 |
185.60 |
25.6% |
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2023-04 |
110.04 |
32.69 |
64.30 |
185.60 |
29.7% |
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2023-05 |
106.11 |
36.32 |
55.30 |
185.60 |
34.2% |
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2023-06 |
102.36 |
39.43 |
52.92 |
185.60 |
38.5% |
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2023-07 |
98.80 |
42.18 |
50.40 |
185.60 |
42.7% |
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2023-08 |
94.91 |
43.99 |
50.40 |
185.60 |
46.4% |
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2023-09 |
91.59 |
44.63 |
50.40 |
185.60 |
48.7% |
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2023-10 |
87.52 |
43.11 |
50.40 |
185.60 |
49.3% |
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2023-11 |
81.50 |
37.19 |
50.40 |
185.60 |
45.6% |
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2023-12 |
74.39 |
19.36 |
50.40 |
100.98 |
26.0% |
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2024-01 |
70.91 |
17.84 |
50.40 |
100.22 |
25.2% |
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2024-02 |
67.57 |
16.11 |
50.40 |
100.22 |
23.8% |
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2024-03 |
64.62 |
15.69 |
50.40 |
100.22 |
24.3% |
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2024-04 |
62.89 |
16.84 |
43.47 |
100.22 |
26.8% |
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2024-05 |
61.39 |
18.31 |
37.31 |
100.22 |
29.8% |
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2024-06 |
59.56 |
20.23 |
31.02 |
100.22 |
34.0% |
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2024-07 |
57.83 |
21.91 |
29.57 |
100.22 |
37.9% |
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2024-08 |
55.93 |
23.12 |
29.57 |
100.22 |
41.3% |
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2024-09 |
53.68 |
23.41 |
29.57 |
100.22 |
43.6% |
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2024-10 |
50.93 |
21.91 |
29.57 |
100.22 |
43.0% |
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2024-11 |
48.64 |
19.36 |
29.57 |
100.22 |
39.8% |
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2024-12 |
45.93 |
12.56 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
27.4% |
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2025-01 |
45.08 |
11.90 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
26.4% |
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2025-02 |
44.27 |
11.32 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
25.6% |
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2025-03 |
43.55 |
11.16 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
25.6% |
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2025-04 |
42.94 |
11.37 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
26.5% |
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2025-05 |
42.41 |
11.79 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
27.8% |
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2025-06 |
42.30 |
11.91 |
29.57 |
67.63 |
28.2% |
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2025-07 |
42.18 |
12.05 |
28.20 |
67.63 |
28.6% |
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2025-08 |
41.72 |
12.56 |
26.79 |
67.63 |
30.1% |
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2025-09 |
41.17 |
12.85 |
26.79 |
67.63 |
31.2% |
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2025-10 |
40.50 |
12.73 |
26.79 |
67.63 |
31.4% |
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2025-11 |
39.69 |
11.85 |
26.79 |
67.63 |
29.8% |
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2025-12 |
38.74 |
9.65 |
26.79 |
56.20 |
24.9% |
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Note: All analyses
are based on sample/placeholder data from the Hist_Spot_Prices sheet. Green
values reference historical data. |
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