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| MONTE CARLO PRICE SIMULATIONS | |||||||||||||
| Mean-Reverting Price Paths with Seasonal Component (10 Representative Paths Shown) | |||||||||||||
| SIMULATION PARAMETERS (from Assumptions) | |||||||||||||
| Long-run Equilibrium: | 52.0 | EUR/MWh | Mean Rev. Speed: | 0.15 | |||||||||
| Annualized Vol: | 35.0% | Seasonal Amp: | 12.0 | EUR/MWh | |||||||||
| # Paths: | 1,000 | Peak Month: | 1 | ||||||||||
| MODEL: dP = κ(P* - P)dt + σP dW + Seasonal(t) | |||||||||||||
| SIMULATED PRICE PATHS (60 Months, Base Load) | |||||||||||||
| Year | Month | Forward | Path 1 | Path 2 | Path 3 | Path 4 | Path 5 | Path 6 | Path 7 | Path 8 | Path 9 | Path 10 | |
| 2026 | 1 | 67.71 | 63.65 | 65.00 | 66.02 | 67.04 | 67.51 | 67.92 | 68.39 | 69.40 | 70.42 | 71.77 | |
| 2026 | 2 | 61.77 | 62.63 | 64.33 | 65.78 | 67.24 | 68.04 | 68.72 | 69.53 | 71.04 | 72.55 | 74.35 | |
| 2026 | 3 | 54.55 | 61.29 | 63.31 | 65.17 | 67.07 | 68.21 | 69.15 | 70.31 | 72.30 | 74.33 | 76.60 | |
| 2026 | 4 | 45.54 | 59.50 | 61.82 | 64.09 | 66.41 | 67.87 | 69.07 | 70.58 | 73.07 | 75.63 | 78.38 | |
| 2026 | 5 | 39.13 | 57.29 | 59.89 | 62.53 | 65.26 | 67.03 | 68.50 | 70.34 | 73.34 | 76.44 | 79.69 | |
| 2026 | 6 | 36.71 | 54.79 | 57.65 | 60.65 | 63.77 | 65.84 | 67.57 | 69.74 | 73.25 | 76.89 | 80.65 | |
| 2026 | 7 | 34.35 | 52.26 | 55.36 | 58.68 | 62.17 | 64.54 | 66.51 | 69.02 | 73.02 | 77.21 | 81.50 | |
| 2026 | 8 | 36.93 | 49.97 | 53.28 | 56.90 | 60.74 | 63.38 | 65.60 | 68.43 | 72.92 | 77.67 | 82.48 | |
| 2026 | 9 | 41.57 | 48.13 | 51.63 | 55.54 | 59.70 | 62.61 | 65.06 | 68.20 | 73.19 | 78.50 | 83.85 | |
| 2026 | 10 | 50.91 | 46.86 | 50.54 | 54.71 | 59.18 | 62.35 | 65.03 | 68.48 | 73.96 | 79.83 | 85.74 | |
| 2026 | 11 | 59.92 | 46.15 | 49.99 | 54.40 | 59.17 | 62.60 | 65.50 | 69.26 | 75.23 | 81.68 | 88.16 | |
| 2026 | 12 | 70.91 | 45.83 | 49.82 | 54.46 | 59.53 | 63.20 | 66.33 | 70.40 | 76.87 | 83.90 | 90.98 | |
| 2027 | 1 | 71.10 | 45.66 | 49.79 | 54.66 | 60.01 | 63.94 | 67.28 | 71.67 | 78.65 | 86.28 | 93.97 | |
| 2027 | 2 | 64.85 | 45.36 | 49.62 | 54.72 | 60.35 | 64.52 | 68.09 | 72.80 | 80.29 | 88.55 | 96.88 | |
| 2027 | 3 | 57.27 | 44.70 | 49.10 | 54.42 | 60.32 | 64.74 | 68.53 | 73.55 | 81.58 | 90.48 | 99.46 | |
| 2027 | 4 | 47.82 | 43.57 | 48.10 | 53.62 | 59.79 | 64.45 | 68.46 | 73.80 | 82.36 | 91.91 | 101.58 | |
| 2027 | 5 | 41.08 | 41.99 | 46.62 | 52.34 | 58.77 | 63.66 | 67.89 | 73.55 | 82.65 | 92.87 | 103.23 | |
| 2027 | 6 | 38.55 | 40.11 | 44.84 | 50.73 | 57.41 | 62.52 | 66.96 | 72.94 | 82.57 | 93.46 | 104.54 | |
| 2027 | 7 | 36.07 | 38.16 | 42.97 | 49.02 | 55.93 | 61.26 | 65.91 | 72.19 | 82.35 | 93.92 | 105.74 | |
| 2027 | 8 | 38.78 | 36.43 | 41.31 | 47.50 | 54.62 | 60.16 | 65.01 | 71.58 | 82.27 | 94.53 | 107.08 | |
| 2027 | 9 | 43.65 | 35.13 | 40.07 | 46.39 | 53.70 | 59.43 | 64.47 | 71.34 | 82.56 | 95.50 | 108.82 | |
| 2027 | 10 | 53.45 | 34.38 | 39.37 | 45.80 | 53.30 | 59.22 | 64.45 | 71.61 | 83.34 | 96.98 | 111.07 | |
| 2027 | 11 | 62.91 | 34.16 | 39.19 | 45.73 | 53.41 | 59.51 | 64.92 | 72.37 | 84.63 | 98.98 | 113.87 | |
| 2027 | 12 | 74.46 | 34.32 | 39.38 | 46.03 | 53.88 | 60.16 | 65.76 | 73.49 | 86.28 | 101.36 | 117.06 | |
| 2028 | 1 | 73.13 | 34.60 | 39.70 | 46.45 | 54.47 | 60.94 | 66.72 | 74.74 | 88.08 | 103.89 | 120.44 | |
| 2028 | 2 | 66.71 | 34.74 | 39.88 | 46.73 | 54.92 | 61.57 | 67.54 | 75.85 | 89.74 | 106.31 | 123.74 | |
| 2028 | 3 | 58.91 | 34.51 | 39.69 | 46.63 | 55.00 | 61.83 | 67.98 | 76.59 | 91.04 | 108.39 | 126.72 | |
| 2028 | 4 | 49.18 | 33.79 | 39.00 | 46.04 | 54.57 | 61.58 | 67.92 | 76.83 | 91.83 | 109.98 | 129.24 | |
| 2028 | 5 | 42.26 | 32.59 | 37.83 | 44.97 | 53.65 | 60.83 | 67.36 | 76.56 | 92.14 | 111.09 | 131.30 | |
| 2028 | 6 | 39.65 | 31.08 | 36.34 | 43.55 | 52.39 | 59.74 | 66.43 | 75.93 | 92.07 | 111.85 | 133.03 | |
| 2028 | 7 | 37.10 | 29.50 | 34.77 | 42.04 | 51.01 | 58.52 | 65.39 | 75.17 | 91.87 | 112.47 | 134.64 | |
| 2028 | 8 | 39.89 | 28.11 | 33.38 | 40.70 | 49.80 | 57.45 | 64.49 | 74.54 | 91.81 | 113.23 | 136.42 | |
| 2028 | 9 | 44.90 | 27.14 | 32.40 | 39.77 | 48.97 | 56.77 | 63.96 | 74.29 | 92.11 | 114.37 | 138.58 | |
| 2028 | 10 | 54.98 | 26.71 | 31.96 | 39.36 | 48.67 | 56.59 | 63.94 | 74.53 | 92.91 | 116.02 | 141.28 | |
| 2028 | 11 | 64.71 | 26.80 | 32.03 | 39.46 | 48.86 | 56.92 | 64.42 | 75.28 | 94.21 | 118.18 | 144.52 | |
| 2028 | 12 | 76.59 | 27.25 | 32.47 | 39.93 | 49.42 | 57.61 | 65.26 | 76.39 | 95.88 | 120.73 | 148.17 | |
| 2029 | 1 | 74.48 | 27.81 | 33.02 | 40.51 | 50.11 | 58.42 | 66.23 | 77.62 | 97.69 | 123.43 | 152.01 | |
| 2029 | 2 | 67.94 | 28.22 | 33.43 | 40.95 | 50.64 | 59.09 | 67.05 | 78.72 | 99.37 | 126.02 | 155.77 | |
| 2029 | 3 | 60.00 | 28.25 | 33.45 | 41.01 | 50.80 | 59.38 | 67.50 | 79.44 | 100.68 | 128.27 | 159.23 | |
| 2029 | 4 | 50.09 | 27.78 | 32.97 | 40.56 | 50.46 | 59.17 | 67.44 | 79.66 | 101.50 | 130.04 | 162.23 | |
| 2029 | 5 | 43.04 | 26.82 | 32.01 | 39.63 | 49.62 | 58.46 | 66.88 | 79.38 | 101.82 | 131.32 | 164.78 | |
| 2029 | 6 | 40.38 | 25.54 | 30.71 | 38.36 | 48.43 | 57.40 | 65.97 | 78.73 | 101.77 | 132.25 | 167.00 | |
| 2029 | 7 | 37.79 | 24.17 | 29.33 | 36.99 | 47.13 | 56.21 | 64.92 | 77.95 | 101.58 | 133.05 | 169.12 | |
| 2029 | 8 | 40.63 | 22.99 | 28.12 | 35.79 | 45.99 | 55.18 | 64.03 | 77.31 | 101.53 | 134.00 | 171.40 | |
| 2029 | 9 | 45.73 | 22.23 | 27.33 | 34.98 | 45.24 | 54.53 | 63.51 | 77.04 | 101.85 | 135.32 | 174.08 | |
| 2029 | 10 | 56.00 | 22.00 | 27.05 | 34.70 | 45.01 | 54.39 | 63.49 | 77.28 | 102.67 | 137.14 | 177.30 | |
| 2029 | 11 | 65.91 | 22.27 | 27.29 | 34.93 | 45.28 | 54.75 | 63.98 | 78.01 | 103.99 | 139.49 | 181.08 | |
| 2029 | 12 | 78.01 | 22.90 | 27.89 | 35.51 | 45.91 | 55.47 | 64.82 | 79.10 | 105.68 | 142.22 | 185.27 | |
| 2030 | 1 | 75.84 | 23.64 | 28.60 | 36.22 | 46.66 | 56.31 | 65.79 | 80.32 | 107.50 | 145.11 | 189.66 | |
| 2030 | 2 | 69.18 | 24.21 | 29.15 | 36.77 | 47.26 | 57.01 | 66.62 | 81.40 | 109.19 | 147.89 | 193.97 | |
| 2030 | 3 | 61.09 | 24.40 | 29.32 | 36.94 | 47.49 | 57.34 | 67.07 | 82.11 | 110.52 | 150.33 | 197.99 | |
| 2030 | 4 | 51.00 | 24.08 | 28.98 | 36.60 | 47.21 | 57.15 | 67.02 | 82.31 | 111.35 | 152.29 | 201.57 | |
| 2030 | 5 | 43.82 | 23.27 | 28.15 | 35.78 | 46.43 | 56.47 | 66.47 | 82.01 | 111.69 | 153.77 | 204.70 | |
| 2030 | 6 | 41.12 | 22.13 | 26.99 | 34.61 | 45.31 | 55.44 | 65.55 | 81.35 | 111.65 | 154.90 | 207.51 | |
| 2030 | 7 | 38.48 | 20.90 | 25.73 | 33.34 | 44.07 | 54.28 | 64.52 | 80.56 | 111.49 | 155.90 | 210.22 | |
| 2030 | 8 | 41.37 | 19.85 | 24.64 | 32.23 | 42.99 | 53.28 | 63.62 | 79.91 | 111.46 | 157.04 | 213.11 | |
| 2030 | 9 | 46.56 | 19.21 | 23.96 | 31.52 | 42.30 | 52.65 | 63.11 | 79.63 | 111.79 | 158.56 | 216.41 | |
| 2030 | 10 | 57.02 | 19.10 | 23.80 | 31.33 | 42.12 | 52.54 | 63.10 | 79.84 | 112.62 | 160.59 | 220.26 | |
| 2030 | 11 | 67.11 | 19.49 | 24.15 | 31.65 | 42.45 | 52.93 | 63.58 | 80.56 | 113.96 | 163.14 | 224.67 | |
| 2030 | 12 | 79.42 | 20.23 | 24.85 | 32.32 | 43.13 | 53.67 | 64.43 | 81.64 | 115.66 | 166.08 | 229.50 | |
| SIMULATION STATISTICS | |||||||||||||
| Statistic | Value | Percentile | Price | Notes | |||||||||
| Mean Terminal Price | 83.15 | 5th Pctile (terminal) | 20.23 | Downside risk measure | |||||||||
| Median Terminal Price | 59.05 | 25th Pctile (terminal) | 32.32 | ||||||||||
| Std Dev Terminal | 68.41 | 75th Pctile (terminal) | 115.66 | ||||||||||
| Min Terminal | 20.23 | 95th Pctile (terminal) | 229.50 | Upside risk measure | |||||||||
| Max Terminal | 229.50 | ||||||||||||
| Range | 209.27 | ||||||||||||
| Mean All-Period Price | 71.78 | Average across all paths and periods | |||||||||||
| Overall Std Dev | 37.67 | ||||||||||||
| Forward Curve Avg | 53.50 | Deterministic (no stochastic) | |||||||||||
| Sim vs Forward Diff | 18.28 | Positive = simulations above forward | |||||||||||
| Sim vs Forward % | 34.2% | ||||||||||||
| Note: This sheet shows 10 representative deterministic-seed paths for illustration. The full Monte Carlo simulation with ≥1,000 paths requires runtime calculation. Replace z-values with NORM.INV(RAND()) for live simulation. | |||||||||||||