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	SCENARIO ANALYSIS
	Base, Bull, Bear & Stress Scenarios with Probability Weighting
	SCENARIO DEFINITIONS
	Scenario	Probability	Multiplier	Description	Avg Price (5Y)	vs Base	Wtd. Contrib.
	Base Case	50.0%	1.00x	Forward curve prices; status quo fundamentals	53.50	0.0%	26.75
	Bull Case	20.0%	1.25x	Higher demand, supply disruptions, carbon costs	66.88	25.0%	13.38
	Bear Case	20.0%	0.75x	Oversupply, mild weather, renewable expansion	40.13	-25.0%	8.03
	Stress Case	10.0%	1.80x	Energy crisis repeat; extreme supply disruption	96.30	80.0%	9.63
	Probability-Weighted Avg	100.0%			57.78		57.78
	ANNUAL SCENARIO PRICES (Base Load, EUR/MWh)
	Year	Base Case	Bull Case	Bear Case	Stress Case	Wtd. Average
	2026	50.00	62.50	37.50	90.00	54.00
	2027	52.50	65.63	39.38	94.50	56.70
	2028	54.00	67.50	40.50	97.20	58.32
	2029	55.00	68.75	41.25	99.00	59.40
	2030	56.00	70.00	42.00	100.80	60.48
	5-Year Average	53.50	66.88	40.13	96.30	57.78
	MONTHLY SCENARIO DETAIL (Base Load Forward x Multiplier)
	Year	Month	Base Case	Bull Case	Bear Case	Stress Case	Wtd. Average
	2026	1	67.71	84.64	50.78	121.88	73.13
	2026	2	61.77	77.21	46.32	111.18	66.71
	2026	3	54.55	68.18	40.91	98.18	58.91
	2026	4	45.54	56.92	34.15	81.97	49.18
	2026	5	39.13	48.91	29.34	70.43	42.26
	2026	6	36.71	45.89	27.53	66.08	39.65
	2026	7	34.35	42.94	25.76	61.84	37.10
	2026	8	36.93	46.17	27.70	66.48	39.89
	2026	9	41.57	51.97	31.18	74.83	44.90
	2026	10	50.91	63.63	38.18	91.63	54.98
	2026	11	59.92	74.90	44.94	107.85	64.71
	2026	12	70.91	88.64	53.19	127.65	76.59
	2027	1	71.10	88.87	53.32	127.98	76.79
	2027	2	64.85	81.07	48.64	116.74	70.04
	2027	3	57.27	71.59	42.95	103.09	61.85
	2027	4	47.82	59.77	35.86	86.07	51.64
	2027	5	41.08	51.35	30.81	73.95	44.37
	2027	6	38.55	48.18	28.91	69.39	41.63
	2027	7	36.07	45.09	27.05	64.93	38.96
	2027	8	38.78	48.48	29.09	69.80	41.88
	2027	9	43.65	54.57	32.74	78.57	47.14
	2027	10	53.45	66.82	40.09	96.22	57.73
	2027	11	62.91	78.64	47.19	113.25	67.95
	2027	12	74.46	93.07	55.84	134.03	80.42
	2028	1	73.13	91.41	54.85	131.63	78.98
	2028	2	66.71	83.38	50.03	120.07	72.04
	2028	3	58.91	73.64	44.18	106.04	63.62
	2028	4	49.18	61.48	36.89	88.53	53.12
	2028	5	42.26	52.82	31.69	76.06	45.64
	2028	6	39.65	49.56	29.74	71.37	42.82
	2028	7	37.10	46.38	27.83	66.78	40.07
	2028	8	39.89	49.86	29.92	71.80	43.08
	2028	9	44.90	56.12	33.67	80.82	48.49
	2028	10	54.98	68.73	41.24	98.96	59.38
	2028	11	64.71	80.89	48.53	116.48	69.89
	2028	12	76.59	95.73	57.44	137.86	82.71
	2029	1	74.48	93.10	55.86	134.07	80.44
	2029	2	67.94	84.93	50.96	122.30	73.38
	2029	3	60.00	75.00	45.00	108.00	64.80
	2029	4	50.09	62.62	37.57	90.17	54.10
	2029	5	43.04	53.80	32.28	77.47	46.48
	2029	6	40.38	50.48	30.29	72.69	43.61
	2029	7	37.79	47.24	28.34	68.02	40.81
	2029	8	40.63	50.78	30.47	73.13	43.88
	2029	9	45.73	57.16	34.30	82.32	49.39
	2029	10	56.00	70.00	42.00	100.80	60.48
	2029	11	65.91	82.39	49.43	118.64	71.18
	2029	12	78.01	97.51	58.50	140.41	84.25
	2030	1	75.84	94.80	56.88	136.51	81.90
	2030	2	69.18	86.47	51.88	124.52	74.71
	2030	3	61.09	76.36	45.82	109.96	65.98
	2030	4	51.00	63.75	38.25	91.81	55.08
	2030	5	43.82	54.78	32.87	78.88	47.33
	2030	6	41.12	51.40	30.84	74.01	44.41
	2030	7	38.48	48.09	28.86	69.26	41.55
	2030	8	41.37	51.71	31.02	74.46	44.67
	2030	9	46.56	58.20	34.92	83.81	50.29
	2030	10	57.02	71.27	42.76	102.63	61.58
	2030	11	67.11	83.89	50.33	120.80	72.48
	2030	12	79.42	99.28	59.57	142.96	85.78
	RISK METRICS
	Metric	Base	Bull	Bear	Stress
	5-Year Average Price	53.50	66.88	40.13	96.30
	Max Monthly Price	79.42	99.28	59.57	142.96
	Min Monthly Price	34.35	42.94	25.76	61.84
	Price Range	45.07	56.34	33.80	81.13
	Std Dev of Monthly Prices	13.43	16.79	10.07	24.18
	CoV (Std Dev / Mean)	25.1%	25.1%	25.1%	25.1%
	Note: Scenario prices are derived by applying multipliers to the forward curve. Probabilities are from Assumptions sheet and must sum to 100%.