| ← Back to Cover | |||||||||
| SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | |||||||||
| Two-Way Sensitivity Tables on Key Price Drivers | |||||||||
| TABLE 1: Weighted Average Price vs Forward Curve Level & Volatility | |||||||||
| Base Weighted Price: | 57.78 | ||||||||
| Annualized Volatility → | |||||||||
| Fwd Curve Shift ↓ | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | |
| -20% | 46.74 | 47.15 | 47.67 | 48.30 | 49.06 | 49.92 | 50.90 | 52.00 | |
| -15% | 49.67 | 50.10 | 50.65 | 51.32 | 52.12 | 53.04 | 54.09 | 55.25 | |
| -10% | 52.59 | 53.04 | 53.63 | 54.34 | 55.19 | 56.16 | 57.27 | 58.50 | |
| -5% | 55.51 | 55.99 | 56.61 | 57.36 | 58.25 | 59.28 | 60.45 | 61.75 | |
| 0% | 58.43 | 58.94 | 59.59 | 60.38 | 61.32 | 62.40 | 63.63 | 65.00 | |
| 5% | 61.35 | 61.88 | 62.56 | 63.40 | 64.38 | 65.52 | 66.81 | 68.25 | |
| 10% | 64.27 | 64.83 | 65.54 | 66.42 | 67.45 | 68.64 | 69.99 | 71.50 | |
| 15% | 67.19 | 67.78 | 68.52 | 69.44 | 70.52 | 71.76 | 73.17 | 74.75 | |
| 20% | 70.12 | 70.72 | 71.50 | 72.46 | 73.58 | 74.88 | 76.36 | 78.00 | |
| TABLE 2: 5Y Avg Price vs Mean Reversion Speed & Equilibrium Price | |||||||||
| Long-run Eq. Price (EUR/MWh) → | |||||||||
| Mean Rev. Speed ↓ | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | |
| 0.05 | 47.83 | 48.08 | 48.33 | 48.58 | 48.83 | 49.08 | 49.33 | 49.58 | |
| 0.10 | 47.15 | 47.65 | 48.15 | 48.65 | 49.15 | 49.65 | 50.15 | 50.65 | |
| 0.15 | 46.48 | 47.23 | 47.98 | 48.73 | 49.48 | 50.23 | 50.98 | 51.73 | |
| 0.20 | 45.80 | 46.80 | 47.80 | 48.80 | 49.80 | 50.80 | 51.80 | 52.80 | |
| 0.30 | 44.45 | 45.95 | 47.45 | 48.95 | 50.45 | 51.95 | 53.45 | 54.95 | |
| 0.50 | 41.75 | 44.25 | 46.75 | 49.25 | 51.75 | 54.25 | 56.75 | 59.25 | |
| 1.00 | 35.00 | 40.00 | 45.00 | 50.00 | 55.00 | 60.00 | 65.00 | 70.00 | |
| TABLE 3: Peak-OffPeak Spread vs Peak Premium & Off-Peak Discount | |||||||||
| Off-Peak Discount → | |||||||||
| Peak Premium ↓ | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% | ||
| 8% | 10.40 | 13.29 | 16.18 | 19.07 | 21.96 | 24.85 | 27.73 | ||
| 12% | 12.71 | 15.60 | 18.49 | 21.38 | 24.27 | 27.16 | 30.05 | ||
| 15% | 14.45 | 17.33 | 20.22 | 23.11 | 26.00 | 28.89 | 31.78 | ||
| 18% | 16.18 | 19.07 | 21.96 | 24.85 | 27.73 | 30.62 | 33.51 | ||
| 22% | 18.49 | 21.38 | 24.27 | 27.16 | 30.05 | 32.93 | 35.82 | ||
| 28% | 21.96 | 24.85 | 27.73 | 30.62 | 33.51 | 36.40 | 39.29 | ||
| 35% | 26.00 | 28.89 | 31.78 | 34.67 | 37.56 | 40.45 | 43.34 | ||
| TABLE 4: Weighted Price vs Bull & Bear Probabilities | |||||||||
| Bear Probability → | |||||||||
| Bull Probability ↓ | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |||
| 5% | 57.78 | 57.11 | 56.44 | 55.77 | 55.11 | 54.44 | |||
| 10% | 58.45 | 57.78 | 57.11 | 56.44 | 55.77 | 55.11 | |||
| 15% | 59.12 | 58.45 | 57.78 | 57.11 | 56.44 | 55.77 | |||
| 20% | 59.79 | 59.12 | 58.45 | 57.78 | 57.11 | 56.44 | |||
| 25% | 60.46 | 59.79 | 59.12 | 58.45 | 57.78 | 57.11 | |||
| 30% | 61.12 | 60.46 | 59.79 | 59.12 | 58.45 | 57.78 | |||
| Note: Yellow-highlighted cells represent base case assumptions. All tables reference live model parameters from Assumptions and Scenarios sheets. | |||||||||