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	DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL — ASSUMPTIONS & PARAMETERS
	All blue-font cells are user-adjustable inputs. Black-font cells are calculated.
	GENERAL PARAMETERS
	Forecast Horizon (Months)			12
	Historical Period (Years)			3
	Base Year			2023
	Forecast Start Year			2026
	Seasonality Period (Months)			12
	Data Frequency			Monthly
	Number of Products / SKUs			1
	MOVING AVERAGE PARAMETERS
	Simple MA Window (Months)			3
	Weighted MA Window (Months)			3
	Centered MA Window (Months)			12
	EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PARAMETERS
	SES Alpha (Level)			0.30		Range: 0 to 1
	DES Alpha (Level)			0.30		Range: 0 to 1
	DES Beta (Trend)			0.10		Range: 0 to 1
	Holt-Winters Alpha (Level)			0.40		Range: 0 to 1
	Holt-Winters Beta (Trend)			0.20		Range: 0 to 1
	Holt-Winters Gamma (Seasonal)			0.30		Range: 0 to 1
	Damping Factor (Phi)			0.95		Range: 0.8 to 1
	TREND ANALYSIS PARAMETERS
	Trend Method			Linear Regression
	Growth Rate Override (%)					Leave blank for auto
	Confidence Interval (%)			95
	ACCURACY & ERROR METRICS
	MAPE Threshold (Acceptable %)			15.0%
	MAD Threshold			500
	Tracking Signal Limit			4
	Bias Tolerance (%)			5.0%
	Holdout Period (Months)			6
	NOTES
	1. All parameters are sample defaults. Adjust blue-font values to calibrate.
	2. Smoothing constants (alpha, beta, gamma) must be between 0 and 1.
	3. Damping factor (phi) should be between 0.8 and 1.0.
	4. Historical data uses sample values — replace with actual demand data.