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DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL — EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD |
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Comprehensive demand analysis with seasonal
decomposition, trend, and exponential smoothing |
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KEY PERFORMANCE METRICS |
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Avg Monthly Demand |
Avg YoY Growth |
Best MAPE |
Recommended Method |
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5,646 |
6.6% |
0.3% |
Holt-Winters |
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MODEL STATUS |
FORECAST SUMMARY (2026) |
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MAPE Threshold Check |
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PASS ✓ |
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Annual Forecast (Consensus) |
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77,594 |
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Error Check Score |
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10/10 |
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Monthly Average |
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6,466 |
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Tracking Signal |
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100.0% |
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Peak Month Forecast |
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7,318 |
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Trend R-Squared |
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0.9982 |
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Trough Month Forecast |
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5,690 |
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SEASONAL DEMAND PROFILE |
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Month |
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Seasonal Index |
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Interpretation |
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2026 Consensus Fcst |
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Jan |
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0.823 |
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Trough |
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5,690 |
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Feb |
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0.845 |
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Trough |
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5,797 |
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Mar |
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0.924 |
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Trough |
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6,086 |
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Apr |
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1.032 |
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Normal |
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6,469 |
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May |
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1.109 |
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Peak |
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6,748 |
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Jun |
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1.158 |
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Peak |
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6,948 |
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Jul |
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1.037 |
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Normal |
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6,603 |
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Aug |
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0.977 |
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Normal |
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6,449 |
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Sep |
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0.918 |
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Trough |
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6,297 |
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Oct |
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0.950 |
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Trough |
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6,436 |
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Nov |
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1.034 |
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Normal |
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6,753 |
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Dec |
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1.193 |
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Peak |
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7,318 |
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SHEET NAVIGATION |
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Assumptions |
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Model parameters & configuration |
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Historical Data |
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36-month demand data |
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Seasonal Decomposition |
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Seasonal index calculation |
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Trend Analysis |
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Linear trend regression |
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Moving Averages |
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SMA, WMA, Naive methods |
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Exponential Smoothing |
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SES, Holt, Holt-Winters |
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Forecast Comparison |
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Method comparison & selection |
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Error Check |
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Integrity checks & documentation |
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Note: This model uses
sample/illustrative demand data. Replace Historical Data column E with actual
values. |
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All blue-font values in
the Assumptions sheet are user-adjustable. Green-font values are cross-sheet
references. |
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