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MODEL ERROR CHECK &
INTEGRITY VALIDATION |
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Automated checks to
verify model integrity, data consistency, and calculation accuracy |
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MODEL INTEGRITY CHECKS |
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Check Description |
Expected |
Actual |
Status |
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1 |
Historical data has
36 periods |
36 |
36 |
PASS ✓ |
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2 |
All demand values are
positive |
0 |
0 |
PASS ✓ |
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3 |
Seasonal indices sum
to 12.0 |
12 |
12.0 |
PASS ✓ |
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4 |
Trend R-squared
between 0 and 1 |
0-1 |
0.9982 |
PASS ✓ |
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5 |
All smoothing
constants between 0 and 1 |
0-1 |
0.40 |
PASS ✓ |
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6 |
Best MAPE below
threshold |
15.0% |
0.3% |
PASS ✓ |
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7 |
Tracking signal
within control limits |
4.0 |
3.08 |
PASS ✓ |
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8 |
CMA values present
for valid periods |
24 |
24 |
PASS ✓ |
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9 |
All HW forecast
values are positive |
0 |
0 |
PASS ✓ |
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10 |
Cumulative demand =
SUM of demand |
203,250 |
203,250 |
PASS ✓ |
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OVERALL SCORE |
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10/10 |
ALL PASS ✓ |
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MODEL DOCUMENTATION & VERSION CONTROL |
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Model Name |
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Demand Forecasting Model |
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Version |
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1 |
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Created
Date |
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2026 |
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Last Modified |
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2026 |
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Author /
Owner |
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[Enter Owner] |
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Data Source |
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Sample Data (Replace with Actual) |
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Forecast
Horizon |
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12 months (Jan-Dec 2026) |
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Historical
Window |
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36 months (Jan 2023-Dec 2025) |
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Primary Method |
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Holt-Winters |
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Status |
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Draft — Pending Validation |
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COLOR CODING LEGEND |
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Blue text |
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User-adjustable input values (hardcoded assumptions) |
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Black text |
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Formulas calculating within the same sheet |
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Green text |
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Cross-sheet references (links to other sheets) |
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Light blue
bg |
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Forecast periods / summary rows |
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Dark header |
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Section headers and table titles |
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SHEET INDEX |
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Dashboard |
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Executive summary with key metrics and navigation |
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Assumptions |
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All model parameters and configuration |
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Historical Data |
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36 months raw demand data with summary statistics |
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Seasonal Decomposition |
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Multiplicative decomposition with seasonal indices |
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Trend
Analysis |
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OLS linear regression on deseasonalized data |
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Moving Averages |
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SMA, WMA, and Naive forecast methods |
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Exponential Smoothing |
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SES, Holt, and Holt-Winters methods with 12-mo forecast |
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Forecast Comparison |
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Side-by-side comparison of all methods with recommendation |
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Error Check |
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This page: integrity checks, documentation, and legend |
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