← Back to Dashboard
	TREND ANALYSIS — LINEAR REGRESSION
	OLS regression on deseasonalized demand to isolate trend component
	REGRESSION OUTPUT
	Intercept (a)			5,081.42
	Slope (b) per Period			30.17
	R-Squared			0.9982
	Adjusted R-Squared			0.9981
	Standard Error			13.82
	F-Statistic			18,500.13
	Monthly Trend Growth Rate			0.59%
	Annualized Growth Rate			7.36%
	TREND-FITTED VALUES & FORECAST
	Period	Month	Actual Demand	Deseas. Demand	Trend (Fitted)	Residual	% Error	Abs % Error
	1	Jan	4,200	5,105	5,112	-6	-0.1%	0.1%
	2	Feb	4,350	5,149	5,142	8	0.1%	0.1%
	3	Mar	4,800	5,197	5,172	25	0.5%	0.5%
	4	Apr	5,400	5,232	5,202	29	0.6%	0.6%
	5	May	5,800	5,230	5,232	-3	0.0%	0.0%
	6	Jun	6,100	5,266	5,262	3	0.1%	0.1%
	7	Jul	5,500	5,305	5,293	12	0.2%	0.2%
	8	Aug	5,200	5,320	5,323	-3	-0.1%	0.1%
	9	Sep	4,900	5,335	5,353	-18	-0.3%	0.3%
	10	Oct	5,100	5,369	5,383	-14	-0.3%	0.3%
	11	Nov	5,600	5,415	5,413	2	0.0%	0.0%
	12	Dec	6,500	5,451	5,443	7	0.1%	0.1%
	13	Jan	4,500	5,470	5,474	-4	-0.1%	0.1%
	14	Feb	4,650	5,505	5,504	1	0.0%	0.0%
	15	Mar	5,100	5,522	5,534	-12	-0.2%	0.2%
	16	Apr	5,750	5,571	5,564	6	0.1%	0.1%
	17	May	6,200	5,590	5,594	-4	-0.1%	0.1%
	18	Jun	6,500	5,611	5,624	-13	-0.2%	0.2%
	19	Jul	5,850	5,643	5,655	-12	-0.2%	0.2%
	20	Aug	5,550	5,678	5,685	-7	-0.1%	0.1%
	21	Sep	5,250	5,716	5,715	1	0.0%	0.0%
	22	Oct	5,450	5,738	5,745	-8	-0.1%	0.1%
	23	Nov	5,950	5,753	5,775	-22	-0.4%	0.4%
	24	Dec	6,900	5,786	5,805	-19	-0.3%	0.3%
	25	Jan	4,800	5,834	5,836	-1	0.0%	0.0%
	26	Feb	4,950	5,860	5,866	-6	-0.1%	0.1%
	27	Mar	5,450	5,901	5,896	5	0.1%	0.1%
	28	Apr	6,100	5,910	5,926	-16	-0.3%	0.3%
	29	May	6,600	5,951	5,956	-5	-0.1%	0.1%
	30	Jun	6,950	6,000	5,986	13	0.2%	0.2%
	31	Jul	6,250	6,028	6,017	12	0.2%	0.2%
	32	Aug	5,900	6,036	6,047	-11	-0.2%	0.2%
	33	Sep	5,600	6,097	6,077	20	0.3%	0.3%
	34	Oct	5,800	6,106	6,107	-1	0.0%	0.0%
	35	Nov	6,350	6,140	6,137	3	0.0%	0.0%
	36	Dec	7,400	6,205	6,167	38	0.6%	0.6%
	37	Jan			6,198
	38	Feb			6,228
	39	Mar			6,258
	40	Apr			6,288
	41	May			6,318
	42	Jun			6,348
	43	Jul			6,379
	44	Aug			6,409
	45	Sep			6,439
	46	Oct			6,469
	47	Nov			6,499
	48	Dec			6,530
	TREND MODEL ACCURACY
	Mean Absolute Error (MAE)			10
	MAPE			0.2%
	RMSE			13
	Bias (Mean Error)			0
	NOTES
	1. Linear regression on deseasonalized demand (Y = a + bX). Forecast periods 37-48 extend the trend.
	2. R-Squared indicates % of variance explained. Re-seasonalize in Forecast Comparison sheet.