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	MOVING AVERAGES ANALYSIS
	Simple, Weighted, and Naive Moving Averages with forecast error metrics
	PARAMETERS (from Assumptions)
	SMA Window		3	months		WMA Window		3
	MOVING AVERAGE CALCULATIONS
	Period	Month	Actual	SMA Forecast	SMA Error	SMA |Error|	WMA Forecast	WMA Error	WMA |Error|	Naive Fcst	Naive Error
	1	Jan	4,200
	2	Feb	4,350							4,200	150
	3	Mar	4,800							4,350	450
	4	Apr	5,400	4,450	950	950	4,550	850	850	4,800	600
	5	May	5,800	4,850	950	950	5,025	775	775	5,400	400
	6	Jun	6,100	5,333	767	767	5,500	600	600	5,800	300
	7	Jul	5,500	5,767	-267	267	5,883	-383	383	6,100	-600
	8	Aug	5,200	5,800	-600	600	5,750	-550	550	5,500	-300
	9	Sep	4,900	5,600	-700	700	5,450	-550	550	5,200	-300
	10	Oct	5,100	5,200	-100	100	5,100	0	0	4,900	200
	11	Nov	5,600	5,067	533	533	5,050	550	550	5,100	500
	12	Dec	6,500	5,200	1,300	1,300	5,317	1,183	1,183	5,600	900
	13	Jan	4,500	5,733	-1,233	1,233	5,967	-1,467	1,467	6,500	-2,000
	14	Feb	4,650	5,533	-883	883	5,350	-700	700	4,500	150
	15	Mar	5,100	5,217	-117	117	4,908	192	192	4,650	450
	16	Apr	5,750	4,750	1,000	1,000	4,850	900	900	5,100	650
	17	May	6,200	5,167	1,033	1,033	5,350	850	850	5,750	450
	18	Jun	6,500	5,683	817	817	5,867	633	633	6,200	300
	19	Jul	5,850	6,150	-300	300	6,275	-425	425	6,500	-650
	20	Aug	5,550	6,183	-633	633	6,125	-575	575	5,850	-300
	21	Sep	5,250	5,967	-717	717	5,808	-558	558	5,550	-300
	22	Oct	5,450	5,550	-100	100	5,450	0	0	5,250	200
	23	Nov	5,950	5,417	533	533	5,400	550	550	5,450	500
	24	Dec	6,900	5,550	1,350	1,350	5,667	1,233	1,233	5,950	950
	25	Jan	4,800	6,100	-1,300	1,300	6,342	-1,542	1,542	6,900	-2,100
	26	Feb	4,950	5,883	-933	933	5,692	-742	742	4,800	150
	27	Mar	5,450	5,550	-100	100	5,225	225	225	4,950	500
	28	Apr	6,100	5,067	1,033	1,033	5,175	925	925	5,450	650
	29	May	6,600	5,500	1,100	1,100	5,692	908	908	6,100	500
	30	Jun	6,950	6,050	900	900	6,242	708	708	6,600	350
	31	Jul	6,250	6,550	-300	300	6,692	-442	442	6,950	-700
	32	Aug	5,900	6,600	-700	700	6,542	-642	642	6,250	-350
	33	Sep	5,600	6,367	-767	767	6,192	-592	592	5,900	-300
	34	Oct	5,800	5,917	-117	117	5,808	-8	8	5,600	200
	35	Nov	6,350	5,767	583	583	5,750	600	600	5,800	550
	36	Dec	7,400	5,917	1,483	1,483	6,042	1,358	1,358	6,350	1,050
	ACCURACY COMPARISON
	Metric	SMA	WMA	Naive	Best
	MAE	733	673	543	Naive
	MAPE	12.7%	11.7%	9.5%	Naive
	RMSE	832	773	694	Naive
	Bias	135	117	91	Naive
	NOTES
	1. SMA: Equal weight to last 3 obs. WMA: Weights 3:2:1 for most recent. Naive: Last period.
	2. Adjust window sizes in Assumptions sheet to optimize accuracy.