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	EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS
	Single (SES), Double (Holt), and Triple (Holt-Winters) exponential smoothing
	SMOOTHING PARAMETERS (from Assumptions)
	SES Alpha		0.30		DES Alpha		0.30
	DES Beta		0.10		HW Alpha		0.40
	HW Beta		0.20		HW Gamma		0.30
	A. SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (SES)							B. DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (HOLT)
	Period	Actual	SES Fcst	Error	|Error|	APE		Period	Actual	Level	Trend	DES Fcst	Error	|Error|	APE
	1	4,200	4,200	0	0	0.0%		1	4,200	4,200	0.0	4,200	0	0	0.0%
	2	4,350	4,200	150	150	3.4%		2	4,350	4,245	4.5	4,200	150	150	3.4%
	3	4,800	4,245	555	555	11.6%		3	4,800	4,415	21.0	4,250	551	551	11.5%
	4	5,400	4,412	989	989	18.3%		4	5,400	4,725	49.9	4,436	964	964	17.9%
	5	5,800	4,708	1,092	1,092	18.8%		5	5,800	5,082	80.7	4,775	1,025	1,025	17.7%
	6	6,100	5,036	1,064	1,064	17.4%		6	6,100	5,444	108.8	5,163	937	937	15.4%
	7	5,500	5,355	145	145	2.6%		7	5,500	5,537	107.2	5,553	-53	53	1.0%
	8	5,200	5,398	-198	198	3.8%		8	5,200	5,511	93.9	5,644	-444	444	8.5%
	9	4,900	5,339	-439	439	9.0%		9	4,900	5,393	72.7	5,605	-705	705	14.4%
	10	5,100	5,207	-107	107	2.1%		10	5,100	5,356	61.8	5,466	-366	366	7.2%
	11	5,600	5,175	425	425	7.6%		11	5,600	5,473	67.2	5,418	182	182	3.2%
	12	6,500	5,303	1,197	1,197	18.4%		12	6,500	5,828	96.0	5,540	960	960	14.8%
	13	4,500	5,662	-1,162	1,162	25.8%		13	4,500	5,497	53.3	5,924	-1,424	1,424	31.6%
	14	4,650	5,313	-663	663	14.3%		14	4,650	5,280	26.3	5,550	-900	900	19.4%
	15	5,100	5,114	-14	14	0.3%		15	5,100	5,244	20.1	5,306	-206	206	4.0%
	16	5,750	5,110	640	640	11.1%		16	5,750	5,410	34.7	5,265	485	485	8.4%
	17	6,200	5,302	898	898	14.5%		17	6,200	5,671	57.3	5,445	755	755	12.2%
	18	6,500	5,571	929	929	14.3%		18	6,500	5,960	80.5	5,729	771	771	11.9%
	19	5,850	5,850	0	0	0.0%		19	5,850	5,983	74.7	6,041	-191	191	3.3%
	20	5,550	5,850	-300	300	5.4%		20	5,550	5,906	59.5	6,058	-508	508	9.2%
	21	5,250	5,760	-510	510	9.7%		21	5,250	5,751	38.0	5,965	-715	715	13.6%
	22	5,450	5,607	-157	157	2.9%		22	5,450	5,687	27.9	5,789	-339	339	6.2%
	23	5,950	5,560	390	390	6.6%		23	5,950	5,785	34.9	5,715	235	235	4.0%
	24	6,900	5,677	1,223	1,223	17.7%		24	6,900	6,144	67.3	5,820	1,080	1,080	15.6%
	25	4,800	6,044	-1,244	1,244	25.9%		25	4,800	5,788	25.0	6,212	-1,412	1,412	29.4%
	26	4,950	5,671	-721	721	14.6%		26	4,950	5,554	-0.9	5,813	-863	863	17.4%
	27	5,450	5,454	-4	4	0.1%		27	5,450	5,522	-4.0	5,553	-103	103	1.9%
	28	6,100	5,453	647	647	10.6%		28	6,100	5,693	13.4	5,518	582	582	9.5%
	29	6,600	5,647	953	953	14.4%		29	6,600	5,974	40.3	5,706	894	894	13.5%
	30	6,950	5,933	1,017	1,017	14.6%		30	6,950	6,295	68.3	6,015	935	935	13.5%
	31	6,250	6,238	12	12	0.2%		31	6,250	6,329	64.9	6,364	-114	114	1.8%
	32	5,900	6,242	-342	342	5.8%		32	5,900	6,246	50.1	6,394	-494	494	8.4%
	33	5,600	6,139	-539	539	9.6%		33	5,600	6,087	29.2	6,296	-696	696	12.4%
	34	5,800	5,977	-177	177	3.1%		34	5,800	6,022	19.7	6,116	-316	316	5.5%
	35	6,350	5,924	426	426	6.7%		35	6,350	6,134	29.0	6,041	309	309	4.9%
	36	7,400	6,052	1,348	1,348	18.2%		36	7,400	6,534	66.1	6,163	1,237	1,237	16.7%
	MAE		591	MAPE	10.3%			MAE		626	MAPE	11.1%
	C. HOLT-WINTERS MULTIPLICATIVE SEASONAL METHOD
	Period	Month	Actual	Level	Trend	Season	HW Fcst	Error	|Error|	APE
	1	Jan	4,200	5,127	29.2	0.819	4,200	0	0	0.0%
	2	Feb	4,350	5,156	29.2	0.844	4,350	0	0	0.0%
	3	Mar	4,800	5,185	29.2	0.926	4,800	0	0	0.0%
	4	Apr	5,400	5,215	29.2	1.036	5,400	0	0	0.0%
	5	May	5,800	5,244	29.2	1.106	5,800	0	0	0.0%
	6	Jun	6,100	5,273	29.2	1.157	6,100	0	0	0.0%
	7	Jul	5,500	5,302	29.2	1.037	5,500	0	0	0.0%
	8	Aug	5,200	5,331	29.2	0.975	5,200	0	0	0.0%
	9	Sep	4,900	5,360	29.2	0.914	4,900	0	0	0.0%
	10	Oct	5,100	5,390	29.2	0.946	5,100	0	0	0.0%
	11	Nov	5,600	5,419	29.2	1.033	5,600	0	0	0.0%
	12	Dec	6,500	5,448	29.2	1.193	6,500	0	0	0.0%
	13	Jan	4,500	5,484	30.5	0.820	4,487	13	13	0.3%
	14	Feb	4,650	5,513	30.3	0.844	4,652	-2	2	0.0%
	15	Mar	5,100	5,530	27.6	0.925	5,131	-31	31	0.6%
	16	Apr	5,750	5,555	27.2	1.035	5,755	-5	5	0.1%
	17	May	6,200	5,592	29.0	1.107	6,175	25	25	0.4%
	18	Jun	6,500	5,620	28.8	1.157	6,502	-2	2	0.0%
	19	Jul	5,850	5,645	28.1	1.037	5,860	-10	10	0.2%
	20	Aug	5,550	5,680	29.4	0.976	5,533	17	17	0.3%
	21	Sep	5,250	5,723	32.2	0.915	5,219	31	31	0.6%
	22	Oct	5,450	5,757	32.5	0.946	5,446	4	4	0.1%
	23	Nov	5,950	5,777	30.0	1.032	5,983	-33	33	0.6%
	24	Dec	6,900	5,797	28.1	1.192	6,928	-28	28	0.4%
	25	Jan	4,800	5,838	30.6	0.820	4,774	26	26	0.5%
	26	Feb	4,950	5,868	30.5	0.844	4,950	0	0	0.0%
	27	Mar	5,450	5,897	30.2	0.925	5,454	-4	4	0.1%
	28	Apr	6,100	5,913	27.3	1.034	6,137	-37	37	0.6%
	29	May	6,600	5,949	29.1	1.108	6,575	25	25	0.4%
	30	Jun	6,950	5,990	31.5	1.158	6,916	34	34	0.5%
	31	Jul	6,250	6,024	31.9	1.037	6,245	5	5	0.1%
	32	Aug	5,900	6,052	31.1	0.976	5,910	-10	10	0.2%
	33	Sep	5,600	6,098	34.1	0.916	5,566	34	34	0.6%
	34	Oct	5,800	6,130	33.8	0.946	5,803	-3	3	0.1%
	35	Nov	6,350	6,159	32.7	1.032	6,364	-14	14	0.2%
	36	Dec	7,400	6,198	34.0	1.193	7,382	18	18	0.2%
	MAE		17	MAPE	0.3%
	HOLT-WINTERS 12-MONTH FORECAST
	Period	Month		Level Proj	Trend	Season	HW Fcst
	37	Jan		6,232	34.0	0.820	5,112
	38	Feb		6,266	34.0	0.844	5,285
	39	Mar		6,299	34.0	0.925	5,824
	40	Apr		6,333	34.0	1.034	6,550
	41	May		6,367	34.0	1.108	7,053
	42	Jun		6,401	34.0	1.158	7,412
	43	Jul		6,435	34.0	1.037	6,675
	44	Aug		6,469	34.0	0.976	6,311
	45	Sep		6,503	34.0	0.916	5,957
	46	Oct		6,537	34.0	0.946	6,186
	47	Nov		6,571	34.0	1.032	6,781
	48	Dec		6,605	34.0	1.193	7,878
	NOTES
	1. SES: Level only. DES: Level + Trend. HW: Level + Trend + Seasonality.
	2. First 12 periods are initialization for HW. Accuracy on periods 13-36.