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| SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | ||||||||||
| Tornado Analysis & Key Risk Driver Impact Assessment | ||||||||||
| TORNADO ANALYSIS — IMPACT ON NET INCOME | ||||||||||
| Risk Driver | Base Value | Low Case | High Case | NI at Low | NI at High | Swing ($) | Tornado Bar | Rank | ||
| Revenue Growth Rate | 8.0% | -2.0% | 18.0% | $4,177,500 | $7,552,500 | $3,375,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||| | 2 | ||
| COGS % of Revenue | 55.0% | 61.0% | 49.0% | $3,435,000 | $8,295,000 | $4,860,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| | 1 | ||
| OpEx Growth Rate | 4.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | $5,505,000 | $6,225,000 | $720,000 | |||||| | 7 | ||
| Price Change | 3.0% | -3.0% | 9.0% | $5,358,750 | $7,383,750 | $2,025,000 | ||||||||||||||||| | 3 | ||
| Interest Rate | 5.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | $5,415,000 | $6,315,000 | $900,000 | ||||||| | 4 | ||
| Tax Rate | 25.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | $5,474,000 | $6,256,000 | $782,000 | |||||| | 5 | ||
| Debt Level | $20,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,490,000 | $6,240,000 | $750,000 | |||||| | 6 | ||
| ONE-WAY SENSITIVITY — REVENUE GROWTH RATE IMPACT ON YEAR 1 NET INCOME | ||||||||||
| Growth Rate | -10.0% | -5.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 20.0% | |
| Revenue | $45,000,000 | $47,500,000 | $50,000,000 | $51,500,000 | $52,500,000 | $54,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $57,500,000 | $60,000,000 | |
| COGS | $24,750,000 | $26,125,000 | $27,500,000 | $28,325,000 | $28,875,000 | $29,700,000 | $30,250,000 | $31,625,000 | $33,000,000 | |
| Gross Profit | $20,250,000 | $21,375,000 | $22,500,000 | $23,175,000 | $23,625,000 | $24,300,000 | $24,750,000 | $25,875,000 | $27,000,000 | |
| OpEx + D&A | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | $15,480,000 | |
| EBIT | $4,770,000 | $5,895,000 | $7,020,000 | $7,695,000 | $8,145,000 | $8,820,000 | $9,270,000 | $10,395,000 | $11,520,000 | |
| Interest Expense | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | |
| Net Income | $2,827,500 | $3,671,250 | $4,515,000 | $5,021,250 | $5,358,750 | $5,865,000 | $6,202,500 | $7,046,250 | $7,890,000 | |
| % Change vs Base | -51.8% | -37.4% | -23.0% | -14.4% | -8.6% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 20.1% | 34.5% | |
| TWO-WAY SENSITIVITY — NET INCOME BY GROWTH RATE & COGS % | ||||||||||
| COGS % ↓ / Growth → | -5.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 20.0% | |||
| 45.0% | $7,233,750 | $8,265,000 | $9,296,250 | $9,915,000 | $10,327,500 | $11,358,750 | $12,390,000 | |||
| 50.0% | $5,452,500 | $6,390,000 | $7,327,500 | $7,890,000 | $8,265,000 | $9,202,500 | $10,140,000 | |||
| 55.0% | $3,671,250 | $4,515,000 | $5,358,750 | $5,865,000 | $6,202,500 | $7,046,250 | $7,890,000 | |||
| 60.0% | $1,890,000 | $2,640,000 | $3,390,000 | $3,840,000 | $4,140,000 | $4,890,000 | $5,640,000 | |||
| 65.0% | $108,750 | $765,000 | $1,421,250 | $1,815,000 | $2,077,500 | $2,733,750 | $3,390,000 | |||
| 70.0% | ($2,230,000) | ($1,480,000) | ($730,000) | ($280,000) | $15,000 | $577,500 | $1,140,000 | |||
| NOTES | ||||||||||
| • Tornado analysis ranks risk drivers by impact magnitude on Net Income | ||||||||||
| • Yellow highlighted cells indicate base case assumptions | ||||||||||
| • Two-way table shows combined effect of revenue growth and cost structure changes | ||||||||||