MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
	Financial Risk Analysis — Executive Dashboard
	Model Date: 2026-02-12			Iterations: 1,000		Status: ✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
	KEY RISK METRICS
	Metric	Value	Unit	Context / Interpretation
	Value at Risk (95%, Annual)	$12,336,402	$	Maximum expected annual loss at 95% confidence
	Value at Risk (99%, Annual)	$17,447,609	$	Maximum expected annual loss at 99% confidence
	Expected Shortfall (CVaR 95%)	$9,619,712	$	Average loss in worst 5% of scenarios
	Sharpe Ratio	0.38	Ratio	Risk-adjusted return (>1.0 = good, >2.0 = excellent)
	Probability of Net Loss	0.0%	%	% of simulation iterations with negative net income
	Maximum Drawdown	32.8%	%	Worst single simulated portfolio return
	REVENUE OUTLOOK — 5-YEAR PROJECTION
	Metric	Base Year	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
	Mean Revenue	$50,000,000	$53,995,200	$58,443,235	$63,401,900	$68,937,271	$75,124,986
	5th Percentile (Downside)	$50,000,000	$49,706,814	$49,415,347	$49,125,590	$48,837,531	$48,551,162
	95th Percentile (Upside)	$50,000,000	$58,464,437	$68,361,807	$79,934,691	$93,466,734	$109,289,599
	90% CI Range	-	$8,757,623	$18,946,460	$30,809,101	$44,629,203	$60,738,437
	Mean Growth vs Base	-	8.0%	16.9%	26.8%	37.9%	50.2%
	SCENARIO COMPARISON — NET INCOME IMPACT
	Scenario	Probability	Net Income	Net Margin	vs Base Case
	Bull Case	20.0%	$7,890,000	14.1%	34.5%
	Base Case	50.0%	$5,865,000	10.9%	-
	Bear Case	20.0%	$3,296,250	6.4%	-43.8%
	Stress Case	10.0%	$510,000	1.1%	-91.3%
	Probability-Weighted	-	$5,220,750	9.8%	-11.0%
	PORTFOLIO RETURN CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
	Confidence Level	Lower Return	Upper Return	Lower $ Value	Upper $ Value	Range Width
	90% Confidence Interval	-13.63%	35.02%	$43,183,738	$67,509,165	$24,325,427
	95% Confidence Interval	-18.79%	39.10%	$40,604,976	$69,552,369	$28,947,393
	99% Confidence Interval	-24.81%	48.18%	$37,595,784	$74,091,905	$36,496,121
	TOP RISK DRIVERS — SENSITIVITY RANKING
	Rank	Risk Driver	NI Swing ($)	Impact Bar
	2	Revenue Growth Rate	$3,375,000	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
	1	COGS % of Revenue	$4,860,000	||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
	7	OpEx Growth Rate	$720,000	||||||
	3	Price Change	$2,025,000	|||||||||||||||||
	4	Interest Rate	$900,000	|||||||
	5	Tax Rate	$782,000	||||||
	6	Debt Level	$750,000	||||||
	SIMULATION DISTRIBUTION SNAPSHOT
	Variable	Mean	Std Dev	Skewness	Kurtosis	Normal?
	Revenue Growth	7.99%	5.17%	0.038	-0.074	✓ Yes
	COGS %	55.07%	2.91%	-0.040	0.036	✓ Yes
	OpEx Growth	4.08%	1.95%	0.064	-0.332	✓ Yes
	Price Change	1.73%	1.41%	2.409	5.927	✗ No
	Interest Rate	5.00%	1.00%	-0.054	0.049	✓ Yes
	Portfolio Return	9.64%	14.87%	0.136	-0.143	✓ Yes
	NAVIGATION
	1	Assumptions	Input parameters & correlation matrix
	2	Distributions	Probability distribution definitions
	3	Simulation Engine	1,000 Monte Carlo iterations
	4	Revenue Risk	Revenue projections & frequency distribution
	5	Cost Risk	Cost structure & net income simulation
	6	Portfolio VaR	Value at Risk & confidence intervals
	7	Sensitivity	Tornado & one/two-way sensitivity
	8	Scenario Analysis	Bull/Base/Bear/Stress scenarios
	9	Statistics	Descriptive stats & percentiles
	10	Error Check	Model integrity & audit trail
	DISCLAIMER
	• This model uses sample/illustrative data. Replace all blue inputs in the Assumptions sheet with actual company data before use.
	• Results are probabilistic estimates, not deterministic forecasts. Actual outcomes may differ materially.
	• Press F9 to recalculate and generate a new set of random simulation outcomes.