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| SCENARIO ANALYSIS | ||||||||
| Bull / Base / Bear / Stress Scenarios with Probability-Weighted Outcomes | ||||||||
| SCENARIO DEFINITIONS | ||||||||
| Parameter | Bull Case | Base Case | Bear Case | Stress Case | Prob-Weighted | |||
| Probability Weight | 20.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 100.0% | |||
| Revenue Growth Rate | 12.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | -4.0% | 6.6% | |||
| COGS % of Revenue | 52.0% | 55.0% | 59.0% | 63.0% | 56.0% | |||
| OpEx Growth Rate | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 4.7% | |||
| SCENARIO INCOME STATEMENT (YEAR 1) | ||||||||
| Line Item | Bull Case | Base Case | Bear Case | Stress Case | Prob-Weighted | vs Base | ||
| Revenue | $56,000,000 | $54,000,000 | $51,500,000 | $48,000,000 | $53,300,000 | -1.3% | ||
| Cost of Goods Sold | $29,120,000 | $29,700,000 | $30,385,000 | $30,240,000 | $29,775,000 | 0.3% | ||
| Gross Profit | $26,880,000 | $24,300,000 | $21,115,000 | $17,760,000 | $23,525,000 | -3.2% | ||
| Gross Margin % | 48.0% | 45.0% | 41.0% | 37.0% | 44.1% | |||
| Operating Expenses | $12,360,000 | $12,480,000 | $12,720,000 | $13,080,000 | $12,564,000 | 0.7% | ||
| Depreciation & Amortization | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | |||
| EBIT | $11,520,000 | $8,820,000 | $5,395,000 | $1,680,000 | $7,961,000 | -9.7% | ||
| Interest Expense | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | |||
| Earnings Before Tax | $10,520,000 | $7,820,000 | $4,395,000 | $680,000 | $6,961,000 | -11.0% | ||
| Income Tax | $2,630,000 | $1,955,000 | $1,098,750 | $170,000 | $1,740,250 | |||
| Net Income | $7,890,000 | $5,865,000 | $3,296,250 | $510,000 | $5,220,750 | -11.0% | ||
| Net Margin % | 14.1% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 9.8% | |||
| SCENARIO IMPACT SUMMARY | ||||||||
| Metric | Bull Case | Base Case | Bear Case | Stress Case | Best-to-Worst Range | |||
| Revenue | $56,000,000 | $54,000,000 | $51,500,000 | $48,000,000 | $8,000,000 | |||
| Gross Profit | $26,880,000 | $24,300,000 | $21,115,000 | $17,760,000 | $9,120,000 | |||
| EBIT | $11,520,000 | $8,820,000 | $5,395,000 | $1,680,000 | $9,840,000 | |||
| Net Income | $7,890,000 | $5,865,000 | $3,296,250 | $510,000 | $7,380,000 | |||
| Net Margin | 14.1% | 10.9% | 6.4% | 1.1% | 13.0% | |||
| NOTES | ||||||||
| • Scenario adjustments are additive to base assumptions from the Assumptions sheet | ||||||||
| • Probability-weighted column represents expected outcome across all scenarios | ||||||||
| • vs Base column shows % deviation of probability-weighted outcome from base case | ||||||||